Russia-Ukraine Conflict Stock Market Volatility Increases

TL;DR:

• On Thursday, February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine
• OPEC+ will hold the next meeting on March 2, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and possible sanctions continue to disrupt supplies
• Investors might benefit from diversifying into the energy sector, but overexposure is risky

Russia invaded Ukraine on three sides on Thursday, February 24—by land, sea and air—in what was one of the largest attacks in Europe since the Second World War. Russia’s attack on and continued threats to Ukraine loom over capital markets.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin declared war in an early-morning televised address. Shortly thereafter, explosions wreaked havoc across Ukraine’s capital city of Kyiv, the most populous place in the country and home to three million.

Troops reportedly came in across borders from Russia and Belarus, and from both the Black and Azov Seas. The attack was a cataclysmic culmination of weeks of fruitless efforts to avert war by the West. Russia’s defense ministry reportedly said it had destroyed more than 80 land targets in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, called on his people to defend their country, offering arms to anyone willing and prepared to go to war.

“What we have heard today are not just missile blasts, fighting and the rumble of aircraft,” he said in a statement. “This is the sound of a new Iron Curtain, which has come down and is closing Russia off from the civilized world.”

United States President, Joe Biden, called the move an “unprovoked and unjustified attack” in a statement from the White House.

“President Putin has chosen a premeditated war that will bring a catastrophic loss of life and human suffering,” he said. “Russia alone is responsible for the death and destruction this attack will bring, and the United States and its Allies and partners will respond in a united and decisive way. The world will hold Russia accountable.”

E.U. Foreign Affairs Chief, Josep Borrell, called the time of the attack “the darkest hours of Europe since the Second World War.” He also added that E.U. leaders will meet to “respond in the strongest possible terms and agree on the harshest package of sanctions [they] have ever implemented.”

While the world anxiously awaits what could happen, the Russia-Ukraine conflict stock market volatility is raising brows. Investors are keeping tabs on equity markets, which fell sharply last week amid growing concerns of violence along the border as Russia amassed troops. Dozens of ceasefire violations were only a mere foreshadowing of what’s since come.

United States Vice President Kamala Harris met with Zelensky last week to discuss potential sanctions, including delayed progress for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

And while many asset classes are suffering amidst the Russia-Ukraine crisis, oil prices continue to climb. In fact, global oil prices have jumped by more than 11 percent since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) met earlier this month. That means they’ve hit their highest levels for the first time since 2014.

OPEC+ will hold the next meeting on March 2, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and possible sanctions continue to disrupt supplies. Investors might assume that oil prices will continue to rise, but this view might be too simplistic.

High oil prices, ultimately, help Putin’s government. If conditions worsen, the United States government and its partners have tools to harm Russia’s oil-dependent economy. 

Investors may now wonder, would it be shocking to see the United States release crude reserves, thus increasing supply? Or could OPEC+ countries increase production, sending oil prices lower?

Investors might benefit from diversifying into the energy sector or directly into crude oil, but, as always, overexposure is risky. Even (and hopefully) if the political turmoil clears up, the direction of oil prices is not guaranteed.

Q.ai can help you diversify your portfolio amid the violence and ensuing market volatility.

Download Q.ai for iOS for more investing content and access to over a dozen AI-powered investment strategies. Start with just $100 and never pay fees or commissions.