Russia Raises Stakes With Wave Of Hypersonic Missile Attacks On Ukraine

Russia launched a wave of missiles and drones at Ukraine last night in the biggest strike for weeks, again targeting the electricity infrastructure, causing blackouts and civilians deaths at several locations across the country. In one sense, this is more of the same, as Russia has been carrying out such strikes for several months. But the missiles used this time, and Ukraine’s mixed success in shooting them down, has led to renewed pleas for better air defenses. If Russia can field numbers of its new hypersonic missiles, the game may be about to change.

According to a statement from General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, the attacks aimed at critical infrastructure comprised several different types launched from air, sea and land:

28 X-101/X-555 air-launched cruise missiles;

20 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles;

6 X-22 air-launched cruise missiles;

6 X-47 Kinzhal air-launched hypersonic missiles

8 air-launched guided missiles (X-31P/6 X-59)

13 Ground-launched S-300 guided missiles.

8 Shahed-136/131 kamikaze drones

In response, Zaluzhnyi says Ukrainian forces destroyed 34 out of 54 cruise missiles (63%) , all eight of the air-launched guided missiles (100%), and four drones (50%).

One of the things that stands out is the wild variety of munitions involved. It does look like Russia is throwing everything it can into the barrage, and it is a mixed bag.

In particular the S-300 missiles look like an act of desperation. The S-300 is designed as a mobile surface-to-air missile system , capable of intercepting aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles, with a secondary capability against ground targets. Normally it is radar guided, but the ground-based radar cannot illuminate a distant target also on the ground, so it relies on inertial guidance and is unlikely to give high accuracy. The warhead is only 150 kilos – about a third as much as an X-101 – so will do comparatively little damage.

As Ukraine steps up long-range drone attacks against targets in occupied or Russian territory, and even placing surface-to-air missiles close to possible targets in Moscow, Russia looks like needing all the defence it can get. “What air defence doing?” became a meme after locally-made Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s naval headquarters in Sevastopol. With Ukraine fielding increasing numbers of more capable drones, Russia’s decision to expend S-300s on ground targets suggests that the commanders art least are still committed to offensive operations.

(That there were only four Iranian-made Shahed kamikaze drones, rather than dozens seen in previous barrages — 45 were shot down in one night in January suggests that Russia may be running low on this type).

But the biggest surprise – and the greatest concern for Ukraine — was the volley of no less than six Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. Only a handful of Kinzhal attacks have previously been identified in the entire conflict, including one which reportedly fell on Russian territory in September.

The Kinzhal (“Dagger”) is one of Putin’s much-hyped new generation of superweapons, specifically designed to counter improvements in U.S. missile defenses. Hypersonic missiles are not necessarily faster than traditional ballistic missiles, but while ballistic missiles follow a high, predictable trajectory like a cannonball, hypersonics are able to maneuver inside the atmosphere. This means that ballistic missiles can been detected from long range and an intercept point plotted well in advance, but hypersonics stay lower, giving less warning and do not follow a predictable path.

Exactly how capable the Kinzhal missile is a point of some debate. Critics say it is a hastily-assembled kludge, a modified version of the Iskander ballistic missile, that it is “quasi-ballistic” rather than being as maneuverable as a true hypersonic weapon, and not as advanced as Russia claims. Russia’s other hypersonics – the Zircon anti-ship-missile, and the Avangard boost-glide vehicles – are true hypersonics, but some years behind in terms of development.

The fact remains though that Russia now appears to have the resources to fire volleys of Kinzhal missiles, and in this round Ukraine’s air defenses did not succeed in stopping any of them. This led Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence to tweet today that “Ukraine needs more air defense systems.”

In December, the U.S. committed to supplying a single battery of advanced Patriot surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine. Ukrainian crews reportedly completed accelerated training at the end of February, but it is not known when the battery will be operational.

One Patriot battery cannot cover all of Ukraine, and the latest attacks hit targets all over the country; if Kyiv was known to be protected, Russia would likely focus attacks elsewhere. In addition, Russian officials claim that the Kinzhal “is able to overcome virtually any missile defense system”, but they are prone to over-hyping their weapon systems, even ones which do not exist. Whether Patriots can successfully intercept Kinzhals remains very much an open question.

In February, ROSTEC claimed they had greatly increased the production of Kinzhal missiles, with some manufacture of some weapons (not necessarily hypersonic ones) increasing by a factor of 50. The volley of Kinzhals may be a signal that Russia now has sufficient stockpiles to start using them in significant numbers. Or it may be a sign supplies of other weapons are running low– in January Russia was said to have used almost 80% of their stockpiled Kalibrs, forcing them to expended previously-hoarded missiles.

By expending its stock of surface to air missiles and stepping up the use of Kinzhals, Russia is raising the stakes. However, previous damage to the electricity system has been quickly repaired and it seems unlikely that enough Kinzhals can be fielded to do signficant damage. Also, spring is coming: freezing Ukraine into submission no longer looks like a viable strategy. Some Russian missiles are likely to get through, but if it comes to a contest of long-range strikes, Ukraine may be holding all the cards.