Russia Loses 60% of Its Seaborne Crude Market in Europe

(Bloomberg) — Russia has lost three-fifths of its seaborne crude sales in Europe since Moscow sent troops into Ukraine in February. That market is going to vanish almost completely eight weeks from now and the latest sanctions will make it very difficult to divert flows elsewhere.

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Crude shipments to Europe averaged 630,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Oct. 7, down from 1.62 million before the invasion. Tankers carrying Russia’s oil are now forced to spend four times as long making each delivery to India as they would previously have done shipping a cargo to the Netherlands, or 10 times as long as it would have taken to get to Gdansk in Poland.

The European Union’s latest round of sanctions, passed in response to President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of parts of Ukraine, include a ban on shipping Russian crude anywhere in the world on EU tankers — an escalation that could greatly increase the impact on seaborne flows. The sanctions have also been revised to incorporate a price cap championed by the US Treasury under which, from Dec. 5, buyers of Russian crude could use European ships, insurance and other services, but only if the price they pay is below a certain threshold.

Russia has said it won’t sell its oil to anyone who imposes a price cap, warning that its introduction could lead the country to cut production, and its major customers remain unlikely to endorse the plan. Still, the existence of such a mechanism is expected to boost the bargaining power that key customers China, India and Turkey have over Russia for future purchases.

Flows to those three countries, which initially stepped in to fill the gap after European buyers started to shun Moscow’s exports, peaked in June at 2.2 million barrels a day. In the four weeks to Oct. 7 that figure was down by about 320,000 barrels a day.

The volume on tankers yet to show final destinations may narrow that gap, but it won’t eliminate it completely.

While total crude flows shipped out of Russia in the week to Oct. 7 edged lower, the four-week average, which smooths out some of the noise in the data, moved in the opposite direction. The most recent shipments supersede those of the week ending Sept. 9, when flows from the Pacific port of Kozmino were reduced by the passage of Storm Hinnamnor.

Crude Flows by Destination:

Overall exports edged higher on a four-week average basis, but remained below 3 million barrels a day for a fourth week; that’s the longest period since early March that this measure of shipments has been beneath that threshold. The increase was driven by flows to Asia, which rose to their highest since June.

All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. These are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk.

The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export grade. Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies. Transit crude is specifically exempted from EU sanctions on Russia’s seaborne shipments that are due to come into effect in December.

Crude Flows by Destination:

Europe
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Russia’s seaborne crude exports to European countries fell for a fourth week, dropping to 604,000 barrels a day, their lowest for the year so far in the four weeks to Oct. 7. Flows dropped by 56,000 barrels a day, or 8%, from the period to Sept. 30. These figures do not include shipments to Turkey.

The volume shipped from Russia to northern European countries was virtually unchanged on average in the four weeks to Oct. 7 compared with the previous week.

Exports to Mediterranean countries slumped in the four weeks to Oct. 7, with a drop in shipments to both Italy and Turkey. Flows to the region, including Turkey, which is excluded from the European figures at the top of this section, fell to the lowest since March.

Combined flows to Bulgaria and Romania were unchanged from the previous week, with an increase in shipments to Bulgaria offsetting a drop in the flow to Romania.

Asia
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Shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, plus those on vessels showing no final destination, which typically end up in either India or China, rose for a fourth week. The four-week average volume of crude heading to Asia gained to the highest in 16 weeks. Shipments heading to Asia averaged 1.94 million barrels a day over the four weeks to Oct. 7, with a further 140,000 barrels a day on tankers whose point of discharge is unclear.

All of the tankers carrying crude to unidentified Asian destinations are signaling Port Said or the Suez Canal, with final discharge points unlikely to be apparent until they have passed through the waterway into the Red Sea, at the earliest. Most of those ships end up in India, with a few heading on to China.

Flows by Export Location

Aggregate flows of Russian crude fell to a three-week low, dropping by 410,000 barrels a day, or 12%, in the seven days to Oct. 7, compared with the previous week. Flows were lower from all regions except the Arctic. Figures exclude volumes from Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade.

Export Revenue

Inflows to the Kremlin’s war chest from its crude-export duty slumped, falling by $42 million to a 15-week low of $125 million in the seven days to Oct. 7. The four-week average income fell more modestly, dropping by $3 million to a 14-week low of $143 million.

The export duty rate in October is 15% lower than it was in September at $6.06 a barrel, the lowest per barrel rate since February 2021, according to Bloomberg calculations using figures published by the Russian Ministry of Finance. The lower duty rate amplifies the impact on the Kremlin’s income from lower shipments.

Duty rates look set to fall again in November, unless the discount for Urals relative to Brent has narrowed further in recent weeks. The average Brent price since Sept. 15 is down by 5% compared with the period used to calculate the October duty rate, with just four days to go.

Origin-to-Location Flows

The following charts show the number of ships leaving each export terminal and the destinations of crude cargoes from the four export regions.

A total of 28 tankers loaded 20.6 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Oct. 7, vessel-tracking data and port agent reports show. That’s down by 2.9 million barrels, to a three-week low. Destinations are based on where vessels signal they are heading at the time of writing, and some will almost certainly change as voyages progress. All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade.

The total volume on ships loading Russian crude from Baltic terminals fell back to a three-week low, falling by 314,000 barrels a day. Of the 12 tankers loading at Primorsk and Ust-Luga, just one is heading to northern Europe.

Shipments from Novorossiysk in the Black Sea also dropped to a three-week low.

In contrast, Arctic shipments jumped to a five-week high, with three vessels departing Murmansk in the week to Oct. 7.

Crude flows from Russia’s eastern oil terminals gave up the previous week’s gain. Eight cargoes of ESPO crude were loaded, with all but one of the cargoes heading to China. The other ship is heading to Sri Lanka, where a separate ESPO cargo has been anchored since Sept. 19, due to a shortage of foreign exchange to pay for the crude.

Note: This story forms part of a regular weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the export duty revenues earned from them by the Russian government.

Note: All figures have been revised to exclude cargoes owned by Kazakhstan’s KazTransOil JSC, which transit Russia and are shipped from Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga.

Note: Aggregate weekly seaborne flows from Russian ports in the Baltic, Black Sea, Arctic and Pacific can be found on the Bloomberg terminal by typing {ALLX CUR1 }