Russia Is Threatening Europe By Attacking Ukrainian Energy

The largest nuclear power plant in Europe, the Zaporizhzhe nuclear complex, is once again in danger and threatening all of Europe because of Russia’s energy-centric machinations. Russia’s targeting of civilian nuclear power infrastructure showcases Moscow’s pernicious strategy in its most dangerous form. When Russia occupied Zaporizhzhia, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in March, it was preceded by a live-streamed artillery barrage, with Ukrainian workers on loudspeakers describing the danger the Russians were putting Europe in. Subsequent battles around the plant in September have only made the situation more perilous since, without external power linkages, the risks of nuclear disaster only increase. This has forced the plant to shut down its reactors to safer, although not fully inert, states.

Ukraine’s Minister of Energy, German Galushchenko, recently offered to demilitarize civilian nuclear targets. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and international nuclear watchdogs have expressed support for the plan. Russia has not yet responded to this offer, and there is little reason to believe they will.

To the horror of the world when Russia was marching towards Kyiv its troops stopped to “dig trenches” in Chornobyl, the site of the 1986 nuclear disaster, where four still radioactive reactors are encased in concrete. It was completely unnecessary from the military perspective and gave Russian soldiers radiation poisoning but represented a potent psychological attack. Earlier attacks against nuclear infrastructure were followed up on September 19^th when Russian forces attacked Ukraine’s Southern nuclear power plant at Yuzhnoukrainsk. Russia’s flagrant willingness to play nuclear roulette demonstrates the extent to which Russia will go to deny Ukraine all forms of power generation to impact the Ukrainian war effort and Europe.

Russia’s targets are not limited to nuclear. A September 12^th attack on Ukraine’s second largest thermal powerplant left thousands in major metropolitan areas without power. The attack was a response to Ukrainian counteroffensives, where the Ukrainian military retook over 6,000 sq km of the Russian-occupied territory in the Balakleya, Izyum and Kupiansk regions, and seized the initiative. While this latest Russian attack was a spiteful response to battlefield reversals, the destruction of energy infrastructure has been an ever-present tactic throughout the invasion. Forcibly denying access to energy sources is not only designed to undermine Ukrainian morale and logistics, but also to threaten and undermine European unity.

Citing revenge for the destruction of Kerch Bridge, (a military target) Russia deliberately targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure alongside a host of explicitly civilian targets on Monday. In the largest attack on the Ukrainian energy grid since the early days of the invasion, missiles tore into electricity and heating plants across ten cities. Lviv, Khmelnytsky, Zhytomyr, and Kharkiv, were left completely without power and central heating, deepening fears that Russia will use impending winter temperatures to aid its cause. This prompted Kyiv to halt electricity exports to Europe, asking civilians and businesses to cut down on energy use to offset rolling blackouts. Attacks on power infrastructure continued into Tuesday, when Russian kamikaze drones struck the Ladyzhyn thermal power plant at Vinnytsia, damaging critical equipment. Later, Russia kidnapped the deputy head of the Zhaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, detaining him in an unknown location.

345 objects of critical energy infrastructure have been targeted during the war, namely, 336 boiler houses, wherein 324 were damaged and 12 were destroyed. 8 combined heat and powerplants have also been targeted, with 4 damaged and 4 destroyed. These facilities generate heat and electricity and lack any capacity for retooling into military infrastructure. Their geographical position is often in remote locations that cannot be mistaken for other targets or dismissed as collateral damage from proximity to military infrastructure.

The destruction of energy infrastructure is designed to simultaneously punish Ukrainians for resisting, and Europeans for supporting their resistance. This is a tragedy AND a strategy.

Since March 2022 indiscriminate shelling has caused frequent blackouts across Eastern Ukraine, where key logistical hubs such as Mariupol and Sumy have seen disruptions in telecommunications, water, energy, and heating access. Russia has allowed energy targets to dictate tactical objectives, such as with the capture of the second largest coal-fueled power plant in Ukraine, the Vuhlehirsk power plant.

Despite sustained Russian rocket, bomb, and artillery barrages, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure consisting mostly of thermal and hydroelectric plants, with limited nuclear, wind, and outlying solar stations, has held up admirably under the stresses of war. Far-reaching wartime reforms, including totally reconnecting its energy grid to Europe at record speeds, have allowed Ukraine to maintain vital energy output while a reliable network of oil and natural gas pipelines has ensured consistent fuel delivery. Nevertheless, the greatest challenges lie ahead as the impending winter will tighten the noose on Ukraine and challenge Europe’s politicians.

For its part, Europe is bracing for Russia’s blackmail by ensuring alternative supplies to replace Russian ones. On September 19^th, German utilities RWE and Uniper pressed to acquire long-term LNG supplies from Qatar’s North Field Expansion Project. Other EU members have sought similar avenues. In June, France signed a cooperation deal with the United Arab Emirates to ensure long-term natural gas and oil supply. Italy’s ENI is exploring the Algerian and Eastern Mediterranean for gas to replace Russian sources.

For its part, Europe is bracing for Russia’s blackmail by ensuring alternative supplies to replace Russian ones. On September 19^th, German utilities RWE and Uniper pressed to acquire long-term LNG supplies from Qatar’s North Field Expansion Project. Other EU members have sought similar avenues. In June, France signed a cooperation deal with the United Arab Emirates to ensure long-term natural gas and oil supply. Italy’s ENI is exploring the Algerian and Eastern Mediterranean for gas to replace Russian sources.

France and Germany are even considering remaking the face of African energy by bridging the Sahara with a pipeline to ensure stable energy supplies. However, Paris losing its strategic positions in North Africa and Sahel to “Putin’s chef” Evgeny Prigozhin’s marauding Wagner Group mercenaries which is a setback for France and Europe. There are many practical solutions to this looming problem if stakeholders are empowered and politicians don’t buckle to Russian blackmail.

Russia’s weaponization of energy has already somewhat eroded European political will. Though the majority of EU citizens stand in solidarity with Ukraine, a poll conducted in June saw 22% of respondents indicate the war should end as soon as possible, even at the cost of Ukrainian territorial concessions. Energy-based demonstrations in Czechia and the UK combined with new Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s opaque attitudes towards Russia all give hope to Putin and validate his strategy. Should Europeans become unable to heat their houses in the winter, these sentiments will only continue to rise. It is not a coincidence that in July, coinciding with Nord Stream 1’s 80% drop in delivery volume, Europe’s six largest nations offered no new military commitments to Ukraine. European deliveries subsequently leveled out.

Russia closed gas flows into Europe to follow up on these previous successes, blaming a “pipeline leak”. Siemens Energy, which produces the equipment, stated that these types of leaks “do not normally affect the operation of a turbine.” This was followed up with a blatant act of sabotage against the two Nord Stream pipelines to bend Europe, and domestic enemies, to Putin’s demands.

Using energy to coerce Europe is Russia’s one of the last major cards Putin can play, especially given Russia’s lackluster military mobilization, before using tactical nuclear weapons. By attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure as it closes Nord Stream, Putin has adopted a scorched earth strategy to prevent any meaningful negotiations that don’t involve capitulation to Russia.

It is a predictable form of blackmail. Russia hopes that by denying heat to civilians that its most faithful ally, General Winter, can do what its armed forces cannot. To continue opposing Russian aggression and ensure that this is not repeated with other authoritarian upstarts, Europe must move towards energy independence through domestic investments in “all of the above” industries, including shale, gas, and nuclear. Indeed, if Europe buckles for a lack of heat, future demands will make us truly shiver. For the cause of our freedom – and Ukraine’s – it should not be allowed.