Topline
Russia has withdrawn all troops near Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Wednesday, as the Russian military abandons its stalled push toward Kyiv—and possibly shifts its focus to eastern Ukraine.
A man stands next to a destroyed military vehicle in Bucha.
Key Facts
These Russian forces—which could number up to 40,000, according to the New York Times—will likely regroup in Belarus and Russia, the official said.
A senior Pentagon official previously estimated on Monday about one-third of Russian forces arrayed near Kyiv were still in the area, and the Institute for the Study of War think tank said Russian units had “largely completed their withdrawal” from Kyiv by Tuesday.
Russian officials promised last week to cut military activity near Kyiv and Chernihiv, a move they framed as a gesture toward peace—but U.S. officials described Russia’s movements as a likely redeployment to eastern Ukraine rather than a retreat.
What To Watch For
Russian military leaders claimed two weeks ago they will begin focusing on eastern Ukraine, leading some Ukrainian and Western officials to suspect Russia will eventually move troops who struggled to make progress outside Kyiv to the country’s east. This shift probably won’t be immediate: The Institute for the Study of War said Tuesday the units deployed near Kyiv still need to be refitted and ”will not likely regain combat effectiveness for some time,” after suffering heavy losses and poor morale following stiffer-than-expected Ukrainian resistance. Some of the withdrawn troops have already appeared to move from Belarus to Russia, but none have reentered the fight in eastern Ukraine yet, according to the think tank.
Key Background
Russian forces began approaching Kyiv from several directions almost immediately after the invasion began six weeks ago, part of what Western countries interpreted as a gambit to oust the Ukrainian government. However, invading troops stalled in Kyiv’s suburbs and failed to encircle the sprawling capital, as Ukrainian forces fought back and Russia reportedly struggled with supply shortages. A group of Russian troops also encircled Chernihiv—a city of almost 300,000 about 80 miles north of Kyiv—last month, but they were unable to move southward toward the capital city, a U.S. official said. Amid this slow progress, Russia appeared to scale back its ambitions last month by pledging to focus on “liberation” of eastern Ukraine, which has been partly controlled by pro-Russian separatists for eight years.
Tangent
After Russian forces retreated from the Kyiv suburb of Bucha last week, local officials accused Russia of carrying out mass executions of civilians, and said they’d found hundreds of dead residents on the streets and in a mass grave. Russia has denied killing civilians and claimed Ukraine staged the killings after retaking the town, but satellite images reviewed by the New York Times found some dead bodies had sat on the streets of Bucha for weeks. President Joe Biden and other Western leaders called the Bucha killings a war crime.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2022/04/06/russia-fully-withdraws-from-kyiv-area-us-says-heres-what-could-happen-next/