Topline
Russian state news agency RIA claimed Tuesday that initial results from a sham referendum in occupied portions of eastern and southern Ukraine showed more than 96% support for being annexed by Russia, setting in motion what will almost certainly lead to an illegal Russian takeover of the territories to justify continuing the war in Ukraine.
A woman proudly shows her ballot to journalists prior to voting in a referendum in Luhansk, in … [+]
Key Facts
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to soon declare that the four regions will be absorbed into Russia, according to the British Defense Ministry, with his announcement possibly coming during an address to Russian parliament Friday.
Russian military forces do not fully control any of the regions Putin may annex, but the Russian president said in a speech this week that all options are on the table if “our territorial integrity is threatened,” including the use of nuclear weapons.
There are concerns in Russia that Putin could declare martial law after the annexation to prevent a flood of fighting-age men from fleeing the country, after he declared a “partial mobilization” of 300,000 reservists last week to serve as reinforcements in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said all diplomatic negotiations with Russia would end if Putin annexes Ukrainian land.
Zelensky has vowed Ukrainian forces will keep fighting until the country reclaims all of its internationally recognized territories, which include parts of eastern Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula that were taken over by Russia or pro-Russian separatists eight years ago.
Key Background
RIA reported annexation support of more than 96% in each of the four regions of Ukraine where votes took place: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. The referendums, overseen by Russian-backed separatists, took place between Friday and Tuesday, and about 12% of ballots have been counted, according to Russia. The voting has been widely criticized, with Ukrainian officials from the region reportedly saying voters cast their ballots “under a gun barrel,” while Western officials blasted the referendums as illegitimate and said Moscow had preordained the results. Russian soldiers in some areas are reportedly going door-to-door delivering ballots, which residents must fill out in the soldiers’ presence, while there are also reports in the Kherson region that no efforts have been made to publicize the vote. The hastily planned referendums come after a series of humiliating defeats for Putin’s forces in eastern Ukraine, with Russian troops ceding dozens of settlements back to Ukraine in response to a Ukrainian counteroffensive this month.
Tangent
Russia conducted a similar referendum in 2014 to claim its annexation of Crimea, alleging that just under 97% of voters supported joining Russia. That referendum was also widely seen as illegitimate by international figures and Western countries.
Further Reading
With Kalashnikov rifles, Russia drives the staged vote in Ukraine (Washington Post)
Putin to declare annexation of Ukraine regions within days, U.K. says (Washington Post)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2022/09/27/russia-claims-near-unanimous-support-in-dubious-ukraine-annexation-vote-heres-what-happens-next/