Writer-director Derek Cianfrance’s latest film Roofman, cowritten with Kirt Gunn, is a small indie production that feels like a major release. Miramax and Limelight hope the film can gain traction from positive audience word of mouth for a modest performance that positions it for award consideration and long life on home entertainment, and there should be Oscar talk for Kirsten Dunst’s wonderful understated performance.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 29: (L-R) Peter Dinklage, Melonie Diaz, Uzo Aduba, Channing Tatum and Kirsten Dunst attend the Los Angeles Premiere of Paramount Pictures’ “Roofman” at Paramount Theatre on September 29, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic)
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Roofman By The Numbers
Roofman is eyeing a low $10-15 million opening in North America, but with international and some strong holds with adult audiences seeking new fare, particularly women viewers. One Battle After Another enters the weekend at roughly $117 million globally, and is eyeing about $12 million this weekend in all markets. But that Paul Thomas Anderson picture is in weekend three and likely fading at the box office, and its release in China next weekend shouldn’t do much to change any narratives, and won’t affect Roofman’s relative stronger appeal to domestic and international adult women/couples demographics overall.
The weekend will belong to Tron: Ares, as series fanboys turn out to help carry the third installment of the series to around $90 million worldwide. But I don’t think this one will have the legs of the previous Tron sequel, and my expectation is in the $300-350 million. There’s some potential for a $250 million worst case, but I expect international receipts will prevent a collapse. For Roofman, Tron: Ares is a non-factor, since it doesn’t really touch on any of the same core demographics.
The bar for success financially speaking is relatively low, with a budget under $20 million. Roofman should be able to make that up and enjoy a more profitable run on home entertainment, but if it lands some award season attention then it might get a rerelease and boost its theatrical earnings a bit more. Regardless, this isn’t meant to do blockbuster business or even $100 million level returns, and doesn’t really need to, even though I wish it could because it certainly deserves the attention and success.
Roofman – The Review
Roofman is one of my favorite films of the year, and I hope audiences find it and reward it, because if they do then it will reward them right back and then some.
While Roofman at first glance might seem like a sort of irreverent romantic comedy that is fun but not to be taken very seriously, appearances in this case are very deceiving. The film certainly is comedic, and absolutely romantic, but this is also a drama and a semi-secret character study in which a tremendous amount of what’s going on in a scene is really found in the background and reactions of other characters, a reflection of the key identified trait in lead Channing Tatum’s character: observation.
The story is far more complex than the trailer and concept let on, too. If you’re expecting a movie revolving around gags about someone on the run living in a toy store, you’re in for a heckuva lot more than that, not merely in the subtextual and thematic sense, but also in the literal plotting and details of the story itself. A lot happens, and the amazing thing is that most of the craziest parts are entirely true.
That Roofman is a true story is part of the promotion, but anyone unawares will find out immediately in the opening title cards. How much it truly mirrors the real-life events is surprising, as is the fact that at least a couple of instances actually simplified or left out things that would’ve made the story seem even wilder. And it’s not just the funnier or crazier moments that make me mindful of its true-story nature, but more importantly the human moments and underlying motivations and choices these people made, from the options they had or thought they had.
This is probably my favorite performance from Tatum, as much as I love the 21 and 22 Jump Street films. He draws on his easy charm but knows how and when to tweak it just right so what can seem likable and fun becomes too much and intrusive at times. And besides his comedic side and leading man abilities, Tatum also goes to some darker places in Roofman. (I’ll note after seeing this, I’m even more convinced he’s a perfect choice to play Batman in the DCU if they want someone in the 40+ age range.)
This is a deeply troubled man in an extreme situation, desperate for human connection and taking advantage of other people to get it, even though he didn’t have malicious intent and did much to try to help those people too.
Nothing was easier about the way this man lived his life, about the choices he made and what he had to do as a result. He saw the details and minutia around him until it blinded him to anything else, until all he could do was react to it, or so it seemed. In truth, he wasn’t able to function in normal society, and so he reconstructed his situation into one in which his actions were driven by that attention to detail as a means of willful blindness after all.
Living in fight or flight mode, always under risk of exposure and capture, where it’s a struggle to go on a date and impossible to get money legally anymore at a job, pushed to try to defend what he has by setting fires and getting guns, wasn’t forced upon him, he set about to create those conditions because that’s what he operates best in with his “superpower” as he calls it.
There is a moment during a telephone call when Tatum’s simple silence and physical performance reveal a man in a prison of his own construction from which he knows there is no escape, ever.
Dunst gives what might be the best performance of her career, her own charm and charisma mixed perfectly with a naturalist realism and skepticism lurking beneath the surface with this man she loves but doesn’t quite trust.
There are moments of quiet revelation in her expression, as she sees past some veil he’s putting up and seeing some truth about him as simple as his need to be liked or his butting into her parenting, and other times she’s overtly responding in the moment organically and even confronting him about his behavior.
This is such an honest, grounded characterization and portrayal, it feels equivalent to watching someone in real life who just doesn’t know they’re being filmed. This is of course in part because the character is indeed a real person, but Dunst’s performance elevates it into what should earn her an Oscar nod for Best Actress or Supporting Actress.
Peter Dinklage may also be a contender for a Supporting Actor nomination for his hilarious yet humanizing portrayal of the banality of petty tyrants. It’s unfair to call him the villain of the piece, since he’s mean-spirited and bullying yet of the garden variety “lousy boss” variety as opposed to sexually harassing or stealing from his employees. Yet he’s definitely a constant obstacle and antagonist for Dunst and, indirectly usually, Tatum. But there’s only one person ultimately serving the role of Tatum’s worst enemy, and you’ve probably guessed it’s himself.
The absurdity of it all masks a truth about how society treats people and their needs as a real person as unimportant and disposable, after certain points in their lives – at an age, at motherhood, at unwillingness to submit to abuse as a part-time workers, at an inability to adjust normally in society after war, and how things like homelessness and poverty and faith, crime and love, life and death all collide in painfully human ways constantly in real life.
Cianfrance’s films are some of my favorite films of the 21st Century. In particular, Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines are brilliant, and Sound of Metal was among the finest films of 2020. Roofman needed a filmmaker who could see past the sensational events themselves and recognize the human story at the heart of it all, someone whose “superpower” is noticing all the details and patterns and connections around us that most of us miss and finding the threads of truth and life in it all. I can’t think of anyone better than Cianfrance to get these performances from his cast, to sequence events and images in ways obvious and subtle, and find the redemption for everyone along the way.
This is unfortunately the type of film that doesn’t tend to be appreciated for the directing, due to the comedy and romantic slant to a lot of the film, but the tonal shifts and balance are so well maintained that I think a screenwriting nomination could happen, which would up the chances of more attention. But that’s all a fingers-crossed scenario unless the film enjoys enough breakout success to hold the attention of Academy voters, especially producers and actors, two groups who should love Roofman.
Roofman is a tale that would seem unbelievable if you wrote it as an original fictional story. It’s a testament to how often life is strange than fiction, and why those are some of the best and most important stories to tell.