Robinson Can Revamp Your Offense At A Bargain

With the 2024-25 season nearing its conclusion, it is time to start looking ahead to the offseason. In this article series, we will take a look at under-the-radar options in the 2025 Free Agency Pool. For the sake of simplicity, we are going to focus primarily on unrestricted free agents.

At a glance, Duncan Robinson still has one more deal left on the five-year, 90-million dollar contract that he signed back in 2021. However, the final year of his deal is only partially guaranteed (9.9 million). So, if the Miami Heat (or whatever team they trade him to) waives him for before July 8, they will save roughly 10 million dollars.

If that’s the case, Robinson would become an unrestricted free agent, making him available for the rest of the league to try and sign this offseason. Now, a 31-year-old coming off an 11 PPG season may not seem like a game-changer, but don’t let the numbers fool you. Robinson can add a whole new wrinkle to any offense.

The Evolution Of Duncan Robinson

Robinson has always been one of the best shooters on the planet. It’s the reason he was able to pull off the storybook odyssey from Williams College (a Division III school) to the University of Michigan to the NBA. For his career, Robinson is shooting 39.7% on 7.2 3-point attempts per game – a mountain of volume and efficiency that few others in NBA history have ever climbed.

In today’s spaced out world, shooting is one of the best skills you can have. But shooting alone isn’t enough to be a productive player. NBA defenses are too sophisticated, and over the years, they have concocted tactics to neutralize shooting specialists (i.e., the fly-by closeout).

This, along with Robinson’s limitations as a defender, threatened to put the marksmen into extinction. During the 2022 Playoffs, Robinson played just 12.2 MPG for the Heat despite being the team’s fourth-highest-paid player. The season after, Robinson played just 16.5 MPG in the regular season before flashing his personal growth that postseason.

The development we’re referencing is Robinson’s improvement playing off-the-dribble. Robinson didn’t magically transform into Allen Iverson, but aggressive closeouts no longer phased him. He has become comfortable attacking those fly-bys with one or two dribbles and a midrange pull-up or shot at the rim.

Robinson’s growth in this area is apparent when you look at his increase in frequency of shots taken after at least one dribble over his career. Look at the steady uptick over the last couple of years:

As a general rule, the better a player gets at ball handling, the better they are as a passer. When you are more comfortable with the ball in your hands, your brain exerts less energy dribbling, which gives it more latitude to focus on reading the floor and dissecting the defense. According to Ben Taylor’s Passer Rating metric, this past season was the best passing year of Robinson’s career – grading as a respectable 5.3 out of 10 (53rd percentile).

When you pair Robinson’s growth as a passer/ball handler with his all-time shooting abilities, you get a dynamic complimentary offensive option – one that pairs with practically any type of offensive engine. Do you need a floor spacer and closeout attacker to pair with a ball-dominant guard/wing? Robinson is your man. What about a movement shooter who can operate in the two-man game with your passing big? Robinson can do that, too. A release valve for isolationists to skip the ball to when defenses are playing hard in the gaps? You already know the answer: Robinson is your guy.

The best part is, since Robinson would still be earning half his salary for next year if he gets waived, he’ll be more likely to sign for the veteran minimum this summer (which is estimated to be 3.1 million dollars next season). Robinson still has his flaws. His defensive shortcomings will make it hard to play him big minutes in the playoffs. But the chance at getting a dynamic offensive player for a couple of million dollars is an opportunity that few playoff teams can afford to pass up.

Did you enjoy this article? If so, be sure to check out the other installments in this series of Amir Coffey, Landry Shamet, and Jae’Sean Tate.