Rivian’s Stock Is Hitting New Lows After Weak Earnings—But Analysts Still Predict A Rebound

Rivian’s stock fell roughly 7% to a new low of around $38 per share after the company missed earnings expectations and reported a nearly $5 billion loss in 2021, but what really spooked investors was a weaker than expected production forecast for 2022.

Rivian told investors that it plans to produce just 25,000 electric trucks and SUVs this year amid ongoing supply chain disruptions, while Wall Street analysts had been hoping for closer to 40,000 vehicles.

The best-funded electric vehicle startup in U.S. history, Rivian has struggled to ramp up production since going public at a $90 billion valuation last November, and though the stock initially popped after the IPO, it has struggled since—with shares down roughly 63% in 2022.

Despite a slower than expected ramp up in vehicle production, analysts aren’t giving up on Rivian just yet, and though many have adjusted their price targets lower to account for the recent sell-off, the majority maintain a “buy” rating on the stock and remain convinced that it will recover.

The consensus view on Wall Street is that it will take time for Rivian to scale its output, much like Tesla’s slow production build up a decade ago, as RBC analyst Joseph Spak wrote in a research note: “We understand that [Rivian]

needs to show progress on the production ramp and rebuild investor confidence.”

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter, meanwhile, noted that Rivian’s order backlog still looks strong—with roughly 83,000 reservations for its electric trucks and a deal with Amazon for 100,000 electric delivery vans.