Rivers At Their Backs And Ukrainian Brigades Closing In, A Lot Of Russian Troops Might Need To Learn To Swim

Russian paratroopers are fleeing their positions in a critical sector of the front in southern Ukraine. While at least one Ukrainian brigade chases after the Russians, other Ukrainian formations are cutting across the Russians’ likely avenue of retreat.

For the umpteenth time in Russia’s eight-month-old wider war on Ukraine, Kyiv’s forces are in a position to surround a significant number of demoralized Russian troops. When the Ukrainians last enveloped a Russian force, around the eastern town of Lyman last week, potentially hundreds of Russians and Ukrainian separatists died.

To avoid getting trapped, the Russian paratroopers—part of Russia’s 49th Combined Arms Army—soon might face a choice. Either ford the Inhulets River on the western edge of the sector, or the Dnipro River on the southern edge.

Considering how adept the Ukrainian army has become at dropping bridges and destroying river lodgments, both options are unhappy ones for the Russians. It’s possible “the entire 49th CAA will have to find a way … to swim,” quipped Tom Cooper, an author and independent expert on the Russian military.

Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive has been months in the making. As far back as the spring, Ukrainian rocketeers, gunners and saboteurs began targeting bridges, railroads, supply dumps and command centers in and around Russian-occupied Kherson, a strategic port on the Black Sea. The deep strikes on logistics and command isolated and weakened the 49th CAA even as the Kremlin shifted forces from the east to the south in a desperate bid to shore up defenses around Kherson.

Ukrainian brigades meanwhile attacked across the Inhulets River northeast of Kherson, securing a lodgment on the left bank outside the Russian-held town of Davydiv Brid. Four months later in late August, Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive began in earnest.

It took a few weeks, but the Ukrainians in recent days finally picked up momentum in the south. The 17th Tank Brigade is advancing toward the outskirts of Kherson. The 35th Marine Brigade is advancing toward Davydiv Brid. And the 128th Mountain Brigade and 60th Infantry Brigade are rolling along the Dnipro River.

Pay particular attention to the 35th Marine Brigade and 128th Mountain Brigade. The 128th is chasing the Russians southwest toward Kherson while the 35th cuts southeast from the Inhulets toward the Dnipro. If the 35th arrives at the Dnipro before the Russians can cross the brigade’s axis of advance, the Russians will be cut off—with the 128th’s tanks at their backs.

“They are going to end up with a much bigger encirclement than I thought originally,” commented Mike Martin, a fellow at the Department of War Studies at King’s College in London.

There are two ways out for the Russians. One—ford the Inhulets and reach Kherson city to join the rest of the 49th CAA. Two—cross the Dnipro at Nova Kakhovka. The former would be a brief reprieve, as Ukrainian brigades including the 17th Tank now are bringing Kherson city into artillery range. The latter amounts to quitting the battlefield, for now.

And to be clear, either way out is a perilous one. River-crossings are complex and dangerous even when no one’s shooting at you. The Russians might have to cross the Inhulets or Dnipro while the Ukrainians are dropping artillery and rockets on their heads.

It’s still possible for the Russian army to escape the encirclement forming east of Kherson. But the escape could be a bloody one that further weakens the 49th CAA.