Revenues, Roster Options Could Allow Cubs To Extend Kyle Tucker

Stop giving Kyle Tucker credit, and start figuring out how to give him $500 million. It’s time for the Cubs to get serious about keeping Tucker off the free agent market.

There are other reasons why Tom Ricketts’ franchise is on pace for 94 wins and an NL Central title. But they would almost certainly be chasing the Milwaukee Brewers had Jed Hoyer not jumped on the chance to trade for Tucker when the Astros opted to downsize.

Jim Crane, Ricketts’ ownership counterpart in Houston, had concluded he wasn’t willing to give Tucker $40 million-plus per season. Instead the Astros swapped the final year of Tucker’s control for 21-year-old run-producer Cam Smith, third baseman Isaac Paredes and pitcher Hayden Wesneski.

Tucker, to his credit, took the no-drama approach to the trade. He quietly bid farewell to Houston and came to Wrigley Field with an open mind and his usual commitment to excellence. He’s generally worked to avoid discussions about the future, choosing to focus on his new organization and teammates.

With a full understanding about both the financial stakes and the glare of a national spotlight, Tucker has avoided the distractions that could have derailed his performance. He’s focused on the next day’s game, like always, and is proving a left-handed hitter can thrive at Wrigley Field.

Through Wednesday’s 5-4 win over Cleveland, Tucker is hitting .290 with 17 home runs and a .923 OPS. He’s put the cold Chicago spring behind him and is on pace to end the season with 32 homers, 40 stolen bases, 119 runs and 98 RBIs. The stolen bases and runs scored would be career highs.

Factor in how the 28-year-old Tucker has historically been more productive in the second half of the season — he has a .906 second-half OPS, compared to .866 in the first half — and it won’t be a surprise if he delivers a .950-plus OPS in the second half.

Tucker, who was just named to his fourth consecutive All-Star team, has currently generated 4.1 rWAR. He’s on pace for a career-high 7.9 for the season. That not only would be the best ever for a Cubs left-handed hitter but also would match Juan Soto’s mark with the Yankees last season.

You’ll remember the wild bidding on the free-agent market that followed the season, capped by Soto agreeing to a 15-year, $765-milion deal with the Mets. He’s being paid $61.875 million this season.

While it’s true the Cubs have never signed a player to a deal worth more than $184 million, a lot has changed since they pried Jason Heyward away from the Cardinals after reaching the NLCS in 2015. The Cubs have gone into and out of a rebuild while also surviving the Covid-19 pandemic, which Ricketts famously said called losses of “biblical” proportions to major league franchises, including his own.

Despite playing one abbreviated season in front of empty stadiums, Major League Baseball revenues have grown at least 27.3 percent across the board, from a reported $9.5 billion in 2015 to $12.1 billion in ’24. While this is surely a simplification, that’s about $80 million per team on an annual basis, when divided equally after taking out a chunk for MLB’s Central Fund.

The Cubs’ Opening Day payroll was $171.6 million in ’16, after adding Heyward; it was $190.6 million at the start of this season, with Tucker accounting for $16.5 million.

It would seem to be time for Ricketts to significantly expand the payroll, if only moving into the bottom tier of the most aggressive franchises (Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays and Rangers.

Let’s say Tucker can command a 10-year, $500 million contract. That’s $50 million a year — an increase of $33.5 million for 2026 and beyond.

This is the position Crane and the Astros avoided by trading Tucker. But the reality is the Cubs should generate enough revenue to handle a mega contract without compromising the team they put behind Tucker.

For starters, consider the influx of attendance and club revenues. The Cubs have not been able to reach 3 million in attendance in recent years, even though they hit that level 22 times in the last 30 full seasons. They appear on track to draw about 3.1 million this season, an increase of about 200,000 from last year.

Reports by both WGN and MLB say each fan at Wrigley brings in $104 to $110. So the financial reward for another 200,000 fans is between $20.8 million and $22 million. That increase alone would offset most of Tucker’s salary increase.

But the Cubs are also blessed by a surplus of position players between the Chicago roster and well regarded prospects closing in on the majors. They could save about $18 million if they trade Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ before next season, or $36 million if they were aggressive enough to move both of them.

Happ and Suzuki are on track to hit free agency after next season, and arguably their replacements are already in the system. The outfield could be left in the hands of Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong and a prospect platoon (left-handed hitter Owen Caissie and right-handed hitters Kevin Alcantara and Jonathon Long), with 22-year-old hitting machine Moises Ballesteros replacing Suzuki as the designated hitter.

There are plenty of more subtle ways to construct the roster if Ricketts is willing to spend at the level of the 2026 tax threshold, with an Opening Day payroll of about $225 million in addition to the projected $18 million in player benefits.

Retaining Tucker is hardly the Cubs’ only major issue for 2025 and beyond. But it is the biggest issue. It is not insurmountable if Ricketts tells Hoyer he wants to make it work.