Restaurant Chain Cava Faces Analysts’ Review After Hot Debut

(Bloomberg) — Investors are about to get a first look at what sell-side analysts have to say about Cava Group Inc. after the fast-casual restaurant chain delivered one of the biggest trading debuts in two years.

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Shares of the Mediterranean eatery surged 99% from the initial public offering price in their first day of trading on June 15 after the company raised $318 million, or about $365 million when including the exercise of the underwriters’ over-allotment option. While the stock has fluctuated since then, it’s still up 80%. That makes Cava the best-performing newly public company that has raised more than $200 million this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Now all eyes will turn to Wall Street recommendations, as Monday marks the expiration of a quiet period that applies to analysts at banks that underwrote the IPO.

While banks that help guide a company’s introduction to the public markets tend to be more friendly, sell-side analysts from such firms may question Cava’s current valuation, which stands at $4.5 billion. Some on Wall Street have already done so ahead of the company’s trading debut. Cava shares closed up 1.1% on Friday to $39.62.

The stock is “terribly overpriced,” New Constructs Chief Executive Officer David Trainer said. Even if shares were trading around $19.50, which was the midpoint of Cava’s boosted price range, they would still reflect far too aggressive assumptions for company revenue growth and margin improvement, he said.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Michael Halen also noted that Cava’s restaurant-level margin in 2022 was lower than that of peers like Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. and Portillo’s Inc.

“There’s not a lot about the business that could warrant positive views,” said Trainer. “The space is very crowded, and competition is intense.”

Trainer attributes Cava’s post-IPO jump to “Wall Street hype” for the restaurant chain more so than increased investor appetite for a new IPO. Still, Cava has been a bright spot in a dismal year for listings on US exchanges, and the IPO market has shown signs of life ever since.

The list of underwriting banks that may issue coverage of Cava includes JPMorgan Chase & Co., Jefferies Financial Group Inc., Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler Cos., Baird, Stifel Financial Corp. and William Blair.

(Updates for market close throughout.)