Republicans Win Narrow Majority In U.S. House

Topline

Republicans have won enough House seats in last week’s midterm elections to narrowly secure control of the lower chamber for the next two years, ending the Democratic Party’s four-year-long stint in the majority—but Democrats will remain in control of the Senate.

Key Facts

Key Background

Despite winning control of the House, the GOP’s performance has fallen short of expectations. In the weeks leading up to Election Day, House and Senate forecasts increasingly favored Republicans as polls showed Americans’ concerns about the economy–and their faith in the GOP to handle the issue–superseded all other factors driving voting decisions. Biden’s 42% approval rating was also expected to turn away Democratic voters. Headed into Election Day, Democrats held a slim 222-213 seat advantage in the House, and Republicans were forecasted to gain up to 35 seats. However, the GOP fared far worse than projected and is likely to end the midterm cycle with a single-digit advantage in the House. The president’s party typically loses seats in a midterm year, and previous cycles have produced far worse results than this year’s outcome for Democrats. Republicans lost 40 seats in 2018 under former President Donald Trump and 31 in 2006 under former President George W. Bush. Former President Barack Obama’s first midterm in 2010 produced an additional 64 Republican seats and the GOP won 13 more in 2014. Republicans’ lackluster performance in the midterm election has sparked GOP infighting and a rebuke of Trump among some prominent Republicans.

Tangent

Democrats outperformed expectations in the battle for the Senate, where incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s victory in Nevada on Saturday solidified the party’s hold over the upper chamber for the next two years. Senate forecasts shifted in favor of Republicans in the weeks leading up to the election, but Democrats pulled out ahead in several key races, including Arizona, where Sen. Mark Kelly (D) defeated Republican Blake Masters. In another significant victory, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) flipped Pennsylvania’s Senate seat from red to blue when he beat Republican Mehmet Oz. As of Tuesday, Democrats had secured 50 seats in the Senate, compared to Republicans’ 49. If Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) wins his re-election bid against Republican Herschel Walker in the December 6 runoff, Democrats will hold an even stronger majority than they did before the midterm election and won’t need Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote to pass legislation. The Democrat-controlled Senate and Republican majority in the House, however, is likely to cause a legislative stalemate over the next two years and stall Biden’s agenda.

What To Watch For

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), a staunch Trump ally, is locked in a tight contest with Democrat Adam Frisch, who leads Boebert by fewer than 1,200 votes a week after Election Day. Only a few thousand votes are left to tally and the next batch of updates is expected to be released Wednesday. But it could be weeks before the race is called if the candidates end within 0.5% of each other and either calls for a recount.

Surprising Fact

Historically blue New York lost four Democrat-held House seats, including Democratic Congressional Committee Chair Sean Patrick Maloney’s in the Hudson Valley, marking a major blow to the party as Maloney became the first DCCC chair to lose a re-election bid in 42 years. In the wake of the losses, more than 1,100 party leaders have called on Gov. Kathy Hochul (D)–who defeated Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin in a closer-than-expected race–to replace the state’s Democratic party chair Jay Jacobs. Jacobs, meanwhile, said he has no intention of resigning.

Further Reading

GOP Wave May Not Net As Many Seats As Prior Midterms—Here Are The Close Races To Watch (Forbes)

Elections Results 2022: These Are Tonight’s Must-Watch Races That Will Decide The Senate (Forbes)

These Are The Ten Races Democrats View As ‘Critical’ In Their Bid To Maintain Control Of The House (Forbes)