Reds, Rockies Can’t Score Despite Massive Home Field Run Inflation

I’ve griped many times in this space about the unwillingness to truly compete on the parts of a third to a half of all major league clubs. In a sport where 40% of the teams make the playoffs, there’s a whole lot of tanking going on. And unlike the NBA, where one player can make a huge immediate impact, there is a longer time frame and a lot more uncertainty attached to a high MLB draft pick. Alas, tanking’s goal is often little more than saving money in this sport.

The Colorado Rockies and Cincinnati Reds are currently two of the most hapless franchises in the game. They don’t spend much on payroll, and when they do, the financial commitments are often misguided. Their recent pasts are largely devoid of success, and their present situations are quite bleak. The Rockies have a pair of financial behemoths alongside them in the NL West, and the other two clubs are well managed. The Reds are in the very weak NL Central, but can’t seem to get much headway. At least they have a bunch of high-impact prospects closing in on the major leagues, something their mile-high brothers cannot boast.

There is one particularly sorry aspect of both clubs that almost defies description – somehow, someway they field poor offensive ballclubs despite playing half of their games in the two most run-friendly home parks in the game.

Now everyone is well aware of the extremely hitter-friendly nature of Coors Field, the Rockies’ home. The air is very thin, as the altitude is literally a mile high. Knowing that the ball would travel farther there, the outfield fences were set farther back – but still far enough for a well struck ball to leave the park. The resulting bigger alleys in left and right-center field cause the incidence of doubles and triples to be inflated as much or more as homers.

Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati stands at a much lower elevation, so altitude isn’t at play here. It’s just small – the physical size of the outfield is the smallest in the game, and a well struck fly ball to any part of the yard will leave the field.

I’ve been compiling batted ball-based park factors for many years now. I basically take every batted ball’s exit speed and launch angle and compare the actual result to what would have happened in a league average ball park. Park factors are calculated (100 = league average, the higher the number the more hitter-friendly the ball park) for all batted balls, and separately for fly balls, liners and grounders. Park factors are also calculated for singles, doubles, triples and homers. Each and every year, Cincy and Colorado are #1-2 in some order in overall and fly ball park factor. Quite often, their park factors are over two full standard deviations higher than league average.

The granular nature of the data being used causes it to stabilize over relatively small samples – one-year batted ball-based park factors are quite reliable. In fact, I ran my first interim 2023 numbers through games of 5/16/2023, and lo and behold, there are Great American Ball Park (127.5) and Coors Field (122.1) sitting at the top of the overall park factor list. They’re in the same order on the fly ball park factor list, at 145.1 and 138.5. (In 2022, it was Cincy #1 and Coors #2 overall by 123.9 to 119.7 with the teams reversed on the fly ball list at 153.2 and 134.9.)

And what are these teams doing with that advantage? Nothing. The Reds’ .373 team SLG through Tuesday’s games was dead last in the NL, and the Rockies’ .393 mark was firmly in the bottom half of the league rankings. But we already knew that. Here’s an angle uncovered by my batted ball-based park factor methodology that underscores how much of a crisis this is.

Batters hit .324 AVG-.854 SLG on all fly balls through 5/16. The actual performance on fly balls by both teams in games played in Colorado (.352 AVG-.882 SLG) and Cincinnati (.346 AVG-.929 SLG) check in well above that level. No big deal, you might say, given their deserved reputations as run factories. Well, that level of production has occurred despite the 28th and 29th weakest levels of contact in any big league park. Hitters “should be” batting .292 AVG-.761 SLG in Coors and .297 AVG-.755 SLG in Great American through that date. (Only Progressive Field in Cleveland boasts weaker contact authority, with projected production of .293 AVG-.708 SLG).

Now, it isn’t just Reds and Rockies hitters putting those balls in play – their opponents have an equal say in those numbers, and both clubs (and the Guardians) have done a much better job of assembling pitching staffs than everyday lineups in the recent past. But their utter inability to piece together even a semblance of an offense despite a 25% or so head start is historic.

Better days aren’t too far ahead for the Reds. In Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft they have three fine young starters who are each currently going through some growing pains. Prospect Andrew Abbott will join them before long. Shortstop Elly De La Cruz might be the game’s very best prospect, and there are other solid middle infielders just ahead and behind him on the conveyor belt.

The Rockies are kind of in no man’s land. They did the hard part and drafted and developed a decent Coors-ready rotation headed by Jon Gray, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland, but free agency and injury have taken the first two out of the equation. They lack high impact talent on the big league roster and on the farm, and the current front office seems to lack the competence and the urgency to get the job done.

Still, the offense should be the easy part. Find some guys who hit the ball reasonably hard and can get the ball in the air at a reasonable clip. Decent bat to ball skills would be a plus. An average MLB offense would be 25% above average in their home games, and therefore about 12.5% above average overall. And that would play.