Reds Hope To Merge Big Three Starting Pitchers With Emerging Minor League Nucleus

Major league baseball has endeavored to address its primary on-field problems with a bevy of rule changes this season. On balance, they appear to be working, as the pitch clock has shortened games, the bigger bases/limit on pickoff throws has stimulated the running game, and the shift ban has elevated batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

The game still has one really big problem that outweights all of the others. Roughly half of the game’s teams entered the season with no virtually no hope of participating in the postseason, despite the fact that 40% of clubs qualify. Even worse, most of these clubs don’t even appear to be trying.

The Cincinnati Reds play in the National League Central, a division lacking financial behemoths like the New York Mets and Yankees, the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres or Philadelphia Phillies. The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs are the biggest spenders in the NL Central, and they’re far off of those other clubs’ pace. The Milwaukee Brewers are perennial contenders, but don’t spend a ton of money.

On paper, one would have thought the Cincinnati Reds were well positioned to contend in the 2022 season. They were 83-79 in 2021, and were a fairly well rounded and young club, with Joey Votto their only old position player and Wade Miley their oldest key pitcher. Their payroll had dropped by over $20 million to $144 million that season, and the club did have many key pieces eligible for free agency. The choice was simple – keep the band largely together, watch payroll climb back to around the 2020 level, or take a step backward.

Coming off of the truncated COVID-19 season that greatly pressured low-to-mid-market clubs, the Reds felt that their decision was an easy one. They were not going to complete in 2022 – exit outfielders Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos, third baseman Eugenio Suarez and starting pitcher Sonny Gray in the offseason, and even more critically starters Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle at last July’s trading deadline. The Reds were taking their ball and going home, to compete another day.

After the smoke cleared, the Reds were left with two major strengths – a trio of young starting pitchers that are the envy of other major league clubs, and a cluster of minor league shortstops that are a year or two from being ready. The organization’s challenge? To merge these two strengths into the next contending Reds’ ballclub.

Hunter Greene was the 2nd overall pick in the 2017 draft, and his upside is as high as any pitcher’s in major league baseball. He easily generates 100 mph gas, and his breaking ball also flashes plus. The problem is that he remains much more of a thrower than a pitcher.

He learned at the major league level last season, posting a subpar 5-13, 4.44, mark, while dazzling at times as his 164/48 K/BB ratio in 125 2/3 innings suggests. He was lights out down the stretch, posting a 1.02 ERA and a 51/8 K/BB over his last 35 1/3 innings. Greene appeared to be off to the races.

He has regressed a bit in his first two starts this season, relying too heavily on his fastball and struggling with men on base. The Reds will be ultra-patient with Greene, continuing to allow him to continue to work through his issues at this level. His MLB service time will continue to mount, however – he garnered his first full year in 2022 while struggling for most of the year. Before you know it (in 2025), Greene will be in the arbitration system, making (by Reds’ standards) real money.

Like Greene, lefty Nick Lodolo is a former Reds’ first rounder, the 7th overall selection in the 2019 draft. Unlike Greene, Lodolo has experienced consistent early success at the major league level. The southpaw’s stuff is plenty good, though it’s not at Greene’s level. His deception and feel for pitching is what has set him apart at this stage.

In some ways, he reminds me of a young Barry Zito. Athletic lefty, really good breaking ball, feeling his way a bit command-wise, but a really tough at bat for any major league hitter, and a death sentence for a lefty.

The Reds’ third promising starting pitcher is righty Graham Ashcraft. He doesn’t quite have the draft pedigree of Greene or Lodolo, as a 2019 6th round draftee out of Alabama-Birmingham. He has done nothing but improve ever since, and that trend has continued this season.

He generates easy upper-90s velocity with his fastball, and his offspeed pitches continue to trend upward. Unlike his two more heralded rotation-mates, Ashcraft has whiffed well under a batter per inning thus far in his MLB career, but he is showing signs of picking up the pace in that department.

The three also have unique approaches to contact management. Greene has a pretty pronounced pop up tendency, but with that come a bunch of fly balls, and he has struggled to limit authority in the air, which can lead to big damage. Ashcraft is the groundballer of the three, giving him the highest contact management ceiling. Lodolo likely has the lowest contact management ceiling of the group, possessing a lesser popup tendency than Greene and grounder tendency than Ashcraft.

Put it all together, and Greene has the highest ceiling by far, but also has the lowest floor. Lodolo’s ceiling is exceptional in the short term, but I worry a bit about his staying power. And Ashcraft has the highest floor and the lowest ceiling – but likely the greatest chance of reaching that ceiling.

As things stand, all three will hit arbitration together, and then approach free agency (in 2028) together. Obviously, the Reds will at least attempt to lock one or more of them up to a long-term deal.

The Reds will hope to merge them with a burgeoning group of shortstop prospects that they hope to deploy all over the field. Elly De La Cruz is the best and most advanced of them, but he has been slowed by a hamstring strain early this season. He’s only 21, and is already in Triple-A. Stacked up behind him at lower levels are Noelvi Marte in Double-A, Edwin Arroyo at High-A and 2022 1st rounder Cam Collier in Low-A. Marte and Arroyo were both part of the return from the Mariners in last summer’s Castillo deal.

When I worked for major league clubs, I always had my eyes wide open for lefthanded-hitting middle infielders. Among this group, only Marte is a righty bat, with De La Cruz and Arroyo switch-hitters and Collier a lefty. Oh, and don’t worry about the abundance of shortstops – they’ll find a place for all of these guys to play if they reach their potential. Bear in mind that almost EVERYONE was a shortstop at one point – even Jim Thome and Albert Pujols.

So it’s up to the Reds to thread the needle and get these young position players into the major league lineup while these big arms are still healthy and affordable for a small-to-mid-market club that has shown no signs of loosening the purse strings.

So Reds’ fans, there might be some really exciting days ahead. But there will likely be lots of bumps in the road along the way, and not a ton of margin for error for a front office that might not have a Plan B.