Record-Setting Oklahoma City Is NBA Western Conference Favorite

Western Conference top seed Oklahoma City had the best season in NBA history by one marker, but that hardly means the Thunder will sail through the playoffs.

Behind point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a smothering defense, the 68-14 Thunder are the favorite to reach the NBA FInals.

In a seriously deep NBA West, however, home court advantage throughout may not be enough.

LeBron James and new playmate Luca Dončić have given the Los Angeles Lake Show life.

Stephen Curry and new wingman Jimmy Butler have revitalized the Golden State Warriors.

And Denver center Nikola Jokić remains the best player in the league, no matter how the MVP voting shakes out.

Upsets are not really upsets in the West. The top-seeded Thunder lost to No. 5 seed Dallas in the second round a year ago, when Dončić and the Mavericks extended that run all the way to the Finals before losing to Boston.

The Nuggets, the defending champion and No. 2 seed a year ago, also lost in the second round.

The first two of the West playoff series begin Saturday, when the Nuggets host the Los Angeles Clippers and the Lakers host the Minnesota Timberwolves.

FIRST ROUND PAIRINGS

No. 1 OKLAHOMA CITY vs No. 8 MEMPHIS

Season series: Oklahoma City, 4-0

Game 1: Sunday, at Oklahoma City, 1 pm ET

The Thunder set an record for greatest point differential in league history when they outscored opponents by an average of 12.9 points per game. That is a lot of garbage time.

Gilgeous-Alexander was the ring-leader, averaging a league-high 32.7 points per game with 6.4 assists. The plan is simple: give him the ball and let him work. He led the league in field goal attempts and free throws made per game, finishing with an effective field goal percentage of 56.9 and a free throw percentage of 89.8.

The Thunder have six other double-digit scoers, and the interior presence of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein makes it hard to score on them in the paint. The Thunder lead the league in steals and are second in blocked shots.

The Grizzlies are one of three playoff teams operating with a new coach after Taylor Jenkins was fired March 28. There is plenty of firepower – guards Ja Morant and Desmond Bane and big Jaren Jackson are a strong front three, but the depth is suspect. Interim coach Tuomas Iisalo loves the pick-and-roll, and so does Morant, but it remains to be seen how far that can thake the Grizzlies.

Prediction: Oklahoma City in four.

No. 2 HOUSTON vs No. 7 GOLDEN STATE

Season series: Golden State, 3-2

Game 1: Sunday, at Houston, 9:30 pm ET

First came Barista Jimmy. While with Miami, Jimmy Butler served speciality coffees in his hotel room in the 2020 playoffs, when teams were confined to their hotels by Covid-19 restrictions. The Heat made the Finals, losing to the Lakers.

Then came Giant-Killer Jimmy, whose remarkable shot-making helped the Heat upset No. 1 seed and defending NBA champ Milwaukee in the first round in 2023. They again made the Finals before falling to Denver.

Now Sidekick Jimmy, whose forced mid-season trade to Golden State kick-started the Warriors. Steph Curry and Butler combined for 75 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists in the play-in victory over Memphis, and the Warriors appears primed for another long playoff run.

Guard Jalen Green and big man Alperen Sengun are Houston’s major contributors, but this team’s identity is in its gritty defense personified by coach Ime Udoka and young wing Amen Thompson. Fred Van Vleet and Dillon Brooks are the only starters with playoff experience, and half-court execution has been an issue.

Prediction: Golden State in five.

No. 3 LOS ANGELES LAKERS vs No. 6 MINNESOTA

Season series: Split, 2-2

Game 1: Saturday, at Los Angeles, 8:30 pm ET

The Lakers’ Feb. 2 acquisition of Dončić from Dallas not only stunned the industry but also gave ageless wing LeBron Jones another scoring threat. The deal turned the Lakers from just another contender to a team that could win it all. The Lakers are 22-13 since acquiring Dončić and 19-9 in games in which he has played.

Dončić almost single-handedly lifted the Mavericks into the 2024 Finals when he averaged 28.9 points, 9.5 rebounds and 8.1 assists in 22 playoff games. He may not get as many shots, with James (24.4 points) and blossoming Austin Reaves (20.2) around.

The Lakers’ perceived weakness — rebounding — is a Minnesota strength, which could make things interesting. Anthony Edwards was fourth in the league in scoring, and it is hard to match his athleticism. The Wolves lost to Dončić in the West finals a year ago and replaced Karl-Anthony Towns with Julius Randle, a net loss.

Prediction: Lakers in seven

No. 4 DENVER vs No. 5 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Season series: Split, 2-2

Game 1: Saturday, at Denver, 3:30 pm ET

We’ll see how the Nuggets respond to the firing of head coach Mike Malone and general manager Calvin Booth, who were let go with three games remaining in an up-and-down regular season despite another MVP-caliber year from Jokić. The stated reason: players were not responding.

Jokić became the third player in NBA history to average a triple double when he averaged 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, 10.2 assists, joining Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook. The Nuggets added Westbrook last summer rather than go over the second apron to re-sign free agent starting guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and the difference has been noticeable. The Nuggets need the Jamal Murray who helped them to the 2023 title.

Guard James Harden reprised his role as a difference maker with the surprising Clippers, who played without Kawhi Leonard (knee injury) for the first 2 1/2 months and just recently have used him in back-to-back games.

Harden averaged 22.8 points, his most in four years, and Leonard has looked like his old self at 21.5 points per game. His injury absences have doomed the Clippers in the recent past.

Prediction: Denver in seven.