Recession won’t strike stocks despite ugly market

While retail investors head for the exits as stock prices sharply fluctuate, Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel wants to put money to work.

He calls the market environment very ugly, but he believes the economy will avert a recession — particularly due to healthy credit markets and continued gains.

“The path to higher [stock] prices really is a function of being able to discount the macro news and focus on the fact that you’re still going to have mid-to-high, single-digit earnings growth,” the firm’s senior managing director told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Tuesday.

His S&P 500 year-end target is 4,800, which implies a 22% jump from the Tuesday market close. Emanuel contends much of the market losses were driven by retail investors who were overexposed to growth stocks, namely in Big Tech.

“The bull case rests on essentially a drying up of the public selling of these stocks,” he said.

According to Emanuel, retail investors will return to stocks when they figure out employment remains strong and inflation is peaking. He expects that to happen later this summer.

“When things turn down, that will be a more benign environment for the equity markets,” said Emanuel.

His forecast also hinges on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield cooling and ending the year at 3%. On Tuesday, the yield fell to its lowest level in more than a month.

Emanuel is most bullish on health care and sees solid upside for long-term investors. He’s also overweight in financials and industrials.

“The shift from growth to value is something that’s ongoing,” Emanuel said.

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