RBA to leave cash rate unchanged at 4.1% – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities thinks that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave its policy rate unchanged following the September policy meeting.

Governor Lowe’s last RBA meeting

We expect the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.1% (cons: 4.1%) at the September meeting after the encouraging July CPI print. The economic data hasn’t provided much impetus for the RBA to restart its hiking cycle since the Bank transited to a fine-tuning phase in this cycle, emphasising that the Board will take decision month-by-month based on incoming data.

“July CPI inflation continued to decelerate to 4.8% y/y while the job losses of -14.6k in July cements the case for another pause from the Bank. As such, we doubt there will be any distinct shift in the RBA’s messaging at the September meeting and expect Governor Lowe’s last RBA meeting to go without much fanfare.”