RBA pivot hints at tightening, AUD poised to benefit – BNY

Expectations are rising that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will confirm a pivot toward tightening in its final decision of the year. Governor Michele Bullock’s recent testimony to the Australian Senate affirmed greater vigilance against inflation, and the central bank is not alone in this regard: market pricing for several G10 names such as Norges Bank and even the BoC has shifted away from the Fed and other majors, BNY’s Head of Markets Macro Strategy Bob Savage reports.

AUD/USD outperforms amid strong inflows

“Widening in rate differentials can only help with flow performance, and this is very much in play for AUD, which is sitting on a very comfortable net inflow average since the beginning of October. Outflows have been very limited since that month in both frequency and magnitude. The question is how much of this represents good news already ‘in the price’, and whether AUD is actually being set up for an adjustment if the RBA dampens expectations of speedy hikes.”

“We also observe that AUD/USD is outperforming AUD by some distance, which normally would not be the case in iFlow, given that there aren’t many crosses, which traditionally would have a strong impact on flow scores. The pair has not seen an outflow session in two weeks, and the flow scores have been very strong throughout the last two months.”

“The figures imply that there is also a strong level of outflows in AUD, which we believe could indicate onshore investors removing forward AUD purchases on U.S. assets (i.e. unwinding AUD forward longs). For the crosses, we see a stronger case for outright AUD longs being adopted, due to even wider rate differentials and the prospect of further gains with a more hawkish RBA.”