Raphael Warnock Defeats Herschel Walker, Expanding Democrats’ Senate Majority

Topline

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) won reelection Tuesday, defeating Trump-endorsed Republican challenger Herschel Walker in a tight runoff race that will give Democrats a 51-seat Senate majority for the next two years—the latest GOP defeat in a midterm election cycle marked by worse-than-expected Republican Senate results.

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) answers questions from the media after speaking during a pre-canvassing … [+] event Tuesday in Norcross, Georgia.

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Key Facts

The Associated Press called the race for Warnock just before 10:30 p.m., with more than 90% of votes counted statewide.

Warnock netted 50.7% of votes, while 49.3% cast their ballots for Walker.

Warnock’s lead was bolstered by a strong shocking in Atlanta and its sprawling suburbs, including Fulton County (where Warnock won 73.6% as of 11 p.m.), Gwinnett County (58.9%), Cobb County (56.8%) and DeKalb County (84.3%), while much of Walker’s support came from deep-red counties in rural and exurban parts of the state.

In a Tuesday night speech, Walker didn’t explicitly concede to Warnock but seemed to acknowledge defeat, saying “the numbers don’t look like they’re going to add up” and telling his supporters “we put up one heck of a fight.”

Warnock thanked his supporters Tuesday evening, saying, “it is my honor to utter the four most powerful words ever spoken in a democracy: the people have spoken.”

Key Background

Warnock sought a full six-year term as senator after the Atlanta pastor won a special Senate election in early 2021, while Walker—a Heisman-winning former football player—challenged Warnock with former President Donald Trump’s backing. The candidates headed to a runoff after Warnock led Walker 49.4% to 48.5% in the November general election, with both candidates falling short of the 50% needed to win outright. Warnock appeared to have an advantage in polls headed into Tuesday, and more than 1.8 million Georgians cast their ballots early during the runoff cycle, a good sign for Warnock as early voters tend to lean Democrat. Walker, meanwhile, was dogged by a series of gaffes in his final days on the campaign trail—including a missive about werewolves and vampires that was the subject of a Warnock ad—along with fresh controversies regarding his relationships with women. Less than a week before Election Day, a woman he once dated accused him of violent and “terrifying” behavior in a Daily Beast article, including an incident where he put his hands on her chest and neck and hurled his fist at her after she caught him with another woman at his Dallas condo in 2005, the outlet reported. The claim follows accusations made previously by two women who claimed Walker impregnated them and paid for their abortions, even though he is now opposed to abortion in almost all cases (Walker has denied paying for abortions).

Tangent

The race was viewed as pivotal in Democrats’ quest to expand their current 50-seat Senate majority. Warnock’s victory means the Senate will be split 51-49 between the two parties, meaning Democrats will no longer need to rely on Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote and will have a slightly easier route to passing bills. However, Republicans won control of the House of Representatives, making major legislation unlikely for the next two years.

Surprising Fact

Republicans have underperformed expectations in this year’s midterms, despite predictions that inflation, economic fears and President Joe Biden’s low approval rating would buoy the party’s candidates. Senate forecasts shifted from favoring Democrats to slightly favoring Republicans in the runup to November 8, but Senate Democrats held their majority after eking out wins in several major toss-up races last month, beating GOP candidates in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada. The House will flip from Democratic to Republican control next year, but the GOP’s majority is smaller than expected. Some Republicans have blamed Trump for the party’s performance, citing stinging losses by several of his handpicked Senate, House and gubernatorial candidates who made Trump’s fixation on false voter fraud claims the centerpiece of their campaigns.

Big Number

$57.2 million. That’s the amount Democratic groups spent on pro-Warnock advertisements in the runoff cycle, compared to the $27.3 million Republican groups spent on Walker.