Rangers’ Jonah Heim Is American League’s Most Consequential Player In Early Going

The Texas Rangers have been one of the biggest stories in baseball in the first month and a half of the 2023 season. Through Sunday’s games, they sat at 25-15, in 1st place in the AL West.

Now the Astros and their barrage of injuries might have opened the door, but the recently free-spending Rangers have had plenty injuries of their own, thank you. Corey Seager has been out of the lineup for a long stretch, and staff ace Jacob deGrom is now facing an extended absence of his own. While 2B Marcus Semien and RF Adolis Garcia can also stake claims, s very strong argument can be made that the most consequential Ranger – and perhaps AL player – is their relatively unknown switch-hitting catcher, Jonah Heim.

I chose the word consequential very carefully. Is he the best player? The most valuable? Probably not. But he’s been pretty valuable, and the difference between him and a typical starting catcher is pretty vast. Plus, the value he’s providing relative to his $746,000 salary? Consequential seems to be the word that best fits.

Jonah Heim was a humble 4th round pick out out of a Long Island (NY) high school. 4th rounder, already in his 4th pro organization – he was drafted by the Orioles, and arrived in Texas via Tampa Bay and Oakland. He’s always been a pretty good defensive catcher, but his bat was a major limiting factor.

Each season I prepare a list of top position player prospects based on performance and age relative to league and level. In nearly a decade in the minor leagues, Heim made my list exactly once, ranking #210 in 2019. He hit exactly 36 homers in 2003 minor league plate appearances. If he was going to carve out a major league career, his glove was going to have to get him there, and his bat was going to need to improve for him to ever have a crack at a full-time job.

He didn’t contribute much with the bat in his first MLB opportunity in 2021. His subpar K/BB profile (20.4% K/5.3% BB rates) and very high 6.7% pop up rate gave him minimal margin for error. However, he did scald the baseball when he hit it on a line (96.4 mph average liner exit speed), offering some reason for hope. His 77 “Tru” Production+ was far better than his 60 wRC+. If he could squeeze out a little more launch angle and focus on selectively pulling the ball for distance, there could be something in there.

And he made strides in multiple directions in 2022. The K/BB profile improved materially, particularly on the BB front (19.3%/9.1%). He continued to drill his liners, and now his grounders (average of 88.9 mph) were being smoked as well. His pop up rate remained high, but his fly ball rate also rose to over a half standard deviation above league average. Both Heim’s “Tru” Production+ of 96 and wRC+ of 90 both spiked into favorable terrain for a catcher. But what if Heim ever started to strike his increasing number of fly balls with authority as well?

That’s exactly what Heim has done, while largely retaining his other prior improvements. He has raised his fly ball rate to 41.8%, while sharply increasing his average fly ball exit speed to 93.7 mph. He has sacrificed some line drive authority (down to 93.6 mph) in the process, but the trade off has been a net positive. Yes, he’s just about exhausted his areas for potential improvement – he’s an extreme pull hitter from both sides of the plate – this is about as good as it gets with the bat for Heim.

He’s been a bit fortunate on balls in play to date in 2023 – he “should be” hitting .271-.330-.521 for a 139 “Tru” Production+, a little behind his actual 148 wRC+. Plus, one can expect his current 25.5% liner rate to regress toward the mean as the season progresses.

No matter – the Rangers now employ a durable, full-time catcher with well above average defensive and offensive skills. Coming into 2023, only the Phillies with J.T. Realmuto and Braves with Sean Murphy absolutely knew they met those criteria. (The jury is still out on Adley Rutschman’s defense, so I’m not quite ready to place the Orioles in that group.) At this minute, the Rangers and Jonah Heim belong in that exclusive circle.

Just think about it – on Opening Day, if I told you that Seager and deGrom would be hurt, would you have guessed that the Rangers, and especially their fully-turned-over-as-of-2022 rotation that also includes Martin Perez, Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney would have gelled around their rock-solid receiver and would be the story of the early season in the American League? I’d think not.

Ultimately, I see Heim as a .250-260 hitter with 20 homer power in the short term. That’s all secondary, however. The fact that he’s good for 130 games played and has emerged as a lockdown defender is much more important. Those guys don’t grow on trees, and the teams that have them tend to win.