Rangers Finally Getting Return On Massive Investment In Jacob deGrom

It’s been an interesting run for the Texas Rangers since they made a massive five-year, $185 million investment in starting pitcher Jacob deGrom prior to the 2023 season. On one hand, he underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2023, and was limited to 41 innings in his first two seasons with the club. On the other, he was dominant over that small sample of work, and the club won its first World Series championship in 2023, needing every last drop of pitching to get over the top.

The current 2025 season has been a mix of good and bad for the club. A seemingly potent everyday lineup has struggled to score runs, but everything that could possibly go right on the pitching side has done just that. One could actually make the argument that deGrom has been their third most effective starter this season behind Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle, two other oft-injured hurlers, but that wouldn’t be doing deGrom justice.

He’s off to a 4-1, 2.29, start with a 52/11 K/BB in his first 51 innings. He hasn’t done anything like this – especially quantity-wise – since he was a Met. deGrom hasn’t pitched 100 innings in a season since 2019, only qualifying for the ERA title in 2020 (with 68 innings) as the pandemic-shortened season was reduced to 60 games.

So we are kind of in uncharted waters with regard to deGrom. No one knows whether injury will once again rear its ugly head. All we can do is look at this body of work so far, see how it compares to his peak years as a Met, and make some educated guesses.

First, it’s important to note exactly how overwhelming he was at his best. I like to break pitching into its key components – bat-missing, walk avoidance and contact management. deGrom was overwhelming at the first and last of those facets. His K rate was well into the thirties, over two full standard deviations above league average from 2018-20, peaking at 38.8% in 2020. He was also a Contact Manager of the Year caliber hurler, with Adjusted Contact Scores of 77 in both 2019-20. While he wasn’t a huge grounder generator, he throttled contact authority of all types when hitters had the good fortune to put the bat on the ball. With regard to command, he wasn’t quite Greg Maddux, but had a 5.5% BB rate in 2018 and 2019, over a full standard deviation better than league average. The sum of total of this work was “Tru” ERA- marks of 55, 56 and 59 in 2018, 2019 and 2020. That’s a historic peak, to be sure.

Each year, I calculate pitch grades for all of the qualifying offerings for pitchers with 135 or more innings, based on bat-missing and contact management performance relative to the league. In 2020, I lowered that threshold to 50 innings. deGrom built his success on the back of his fastball/slider one-two punch. His four-seamer got “A” or “A+” grades each year from 2017-20, largely on the back of massive pitch-specific whiff rates. His slider received a “B” or “B+” in each of those seasons, largely due to very strong contact management performances.

With deGrom missing so much time of late due to injury, one might have wondered whether he’d make some changes to his arsenal upon his return. I’m happy to report that if deGrom is going to go down, it will be upon his shield – he’s coming right back with his dominant two-pitch mix.

While his peak velocities might be down a tick or two since his heyday (his average four-seamer velocity is 97.0 mph in 2025, down form 99.2 in 2021, and his slider is now at 89.3 mph, down from 92.6 mph in 2022), both pitches have been about as effective as ever thus far in 2025. Both are “A” grade pitches to date. The four-seamer, as usual, is missing tons of bats, and the slider has been markedly above average on both the bat-missing and contact management fronts. Again, this is new terrain for the slider, which has never earned an “A” over a full season in the past.

His overall K rate of 26.6% is back down to his pre-prime levels, and his 91 Adjusted Contact Score to date is not likely to contend for Contact Manager of the Year honors. His BB rate again sits at 5.5%, matching his career best. His 75 “Tru” ERA- is really good, but not legendary. But if the Rangers get a healthy full season from Jacob deGrom, that’s huge news. Is it likely? I’m guessing no. Exactly four pitchers with 135 or more innings pitched had a 40% or higher slider usage rate in 2024 – Dylan Cease, Brady Singer, Tanner Houck and Chris Sale. For a 37-year-old deGrom to join those ranks would be a big story.

But even 100 high-end innings from the big righty would be big news. The Seattle Mariners are seemingly refusing to pull away in the AL West, and it wouldn’t be wise for them to keep the door open for their two divisional rivals from the state of Texas, who are lurking just over the .500 mark and could be ready to make their respective moves when totally healthy.