Rafael Nadal’s Path To A 23rd Major Title At U.S. Open Could Include Alcaraz And Medvedev

Rafael Nadal’s path to a 23rd Grand Slam title won’t include Novak Djokovic but could feature teenage sensation Carlos Alcaraz and defending U.S. Open champion Daniil Medvedev.

With Djokovic officially out of the tournament due to being unvaccinated, Nadal won’t have to face his arch-rival in New York. Still, the No. 2 seed could meet No. 3 Alcaraz in the semifinals and No. 1 Medvedev in the final. Nadal beat Medvedev in an epic five-set final in 2019.

Nadal is the all-time men’s leader with 22 major singles titles, one more than Djokovic (21) and two more than Roger Federer (20), who is not playing the Open but is expected back at Laver Cup next month.

The top four favorites to win the title per Caesars William Hill are Medvedev (2/1), Nadal (7/2), Alcaraz (9/2) and Wimbledon runner-up Nick Kyrgios (6/1).

Nadal, 36, opens against Australian Rinky Hijikata.

“Rafa is definitely one of the favorites,” four-time U.S. Open champion John McEnroe said ahead of the draw. “There’s no question about it….Rafa has as good a chance as anyone to win this. If not more of a chance, obviously.”

Nadal won the first two legs of the Grand Slam this year at the Australian and French Opens before withdrawing ahead of his Wimbledon semifinal with Nick Kyrgios due to an abdominal tear.

He returned earlier this month in Cincinnati, losing to eventual champion Borna Coric in three sets.

McEnroe is among those speculating that Nadal, who is about to become a father for the first time, might retire sometime in the near future.

“There’s no reason to think that if Rafa continued to love to play that he couldn’t keep producing at a pretty high level,” McEnroe said. “I just thought for him, since he won so much, if he would keep doing it if he fell off at all. He’s got to feel he’s there winning or close to winning. So, I would suspect that it’s going to be fairly soon. Although wouldn’t hold me to that.”

Medvedev, who beat Djokovic in last year’s final to spoil the Serb’s bid for a calendar Grand Slam, is the first non-Big 4 member to be seeded No. 1 at a Grand Slam in 19 years and will face American Stefan Kozlov in his first match.

The Russian could then face Canadian star Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals, No. 4 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas in the semis and Nadal in the final.

“He looks more or less the same,” McEnroe said of Medvedev. “You wonder what’s going on in his head, obviously, with what’s going on with that war. So, I can’t imagine it’s not playing a part in all these Russian players and what’s going on in that part of the world.

“Having said that, I still think he’s one of the favorites, one of the top two couple guys, no question about it. So that’s obviously an interesting storyline to follow. And tactically there’s a whole other thing. Obviously he plays so far back. It seems like that will catch up to him…they’ll figure out, players should figure out a way to deal with that and he’s got to adjust. We’ll see if that adjustment is made or if it needs to be made.”

Among the popcorn first-round matches on the men’s side are American Jack Sock, who entered the draw after Djokovic withdrew, against Diego Schwartzman; No. 23 Kyrgios against his doubles partner Thanasi Kokkinakis; and 2020 champion Dominic Thiem taking on No. 12 Pablo Carreno Busta.