Race Day Bets, And Sierra Leone’s Biggest Run

It’s axiomatic that the extreme high quality of the entries in the $34-million Breeders’ Cup weekend offers a billion or three ways to run and win. Or, run and lose. Among the top favorites in this afternoon’s $7-million Classic, that cruel math is only heightened. There are only atomic-size tolerances for errors at this level. The very tiniest mistake by horse or jock — a wrong lane choice, a bump, a change of lead, a mistimed move — can be costly. Or even, at this level, going with what you’re best at.

Sierra Leone is best at bringing a deep close. It’s what he does. Of his thirteen finishes in the money, he brought his characteristically robust run from his preferred spot rather far back in the field in all of them. Some of those runs were cliffhangers of extreme derring-do, such as the deep close against Fierceness one year ago in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Fierceness, or more accurately, John Velasquez and Fierceness pretty much had the race sewn up at the top of the stretch, but Sierra Leone made his move and brought a run of towering puissance, even turning the afterburners on a bit to secure a full length-and-a-half between him and Fierceness in the last three strides.

Okay, so: He brought his trademark deep close in the Classic once, and it worked. The reason it would be highly inadvisable to try that again this afternoon is an extraordinarily simple one: The 2024 Classic field did not remotely boast the quality of the the 2025 Classic field. Another way to say that would be to say that Fierceness is just the expected, common-denominator foe. Several others of the nine have extremely sharp abilities, trainers and jockeys who would like nothing more than to flummox Sierra Leone and Flavien Prat entirely. They’re gunning for him in a way that he wasn’t being targeted in 2024, with “just Fierceness” to overtake.

But before we get into those race scenarios, here’s the morning refresher on the most admirably talented 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic field.

Post Position, Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Morning Line

1) Fierceness, John Velasquez, Todd Pletcher, 5-2

2) Baeza, Hector Berrios, John Shirreffs, 10-1

3) Nevada Beach, Mike Smith, Bob Baffert, 20-1

4) Contrary Thinking, Florent Geroux, Chad Brown, 50-1

5) Forever Young, Ryusei Sakai, Yoshito Yahagi, 7-2

6) SCRATCH: Sovereignty, Junior Alvarado,William Mott, 6-5

7) Sierra Leone, Flavien Prat, Chad Brown, 7-2

8) Mindframe, Irad Ortiz, Jr., Todd Pletcher, 6-1

9) Journalism, Jose Ortiz, Michael McCarthy, 5-1

10) Antiquarian, Luis Saez, Todd Pletcher, 10-1

(Source: Breeders’ Cup, 11/01/2025)

Depending on the race scenario — as determined by the break and what sort of havoc the speed, Contrary Thinking, wreaks on the peolton — it can be that the race’s nominal favorite does not even pose the biggest danger to Sierra Leone, much as we might like to see a repeat of the 2024 match race down the stretch. The racing point is this: In 2024, there was no lurking Journalism, Baeza, Forever Young or Mindframe blazing along with Sierra Leone at the finish.

More than just “traffic” in the usual racing sense, the top horses in the 2025 field (other than Sierra Leone) form a group of five that can present a cascade of forbidding tactical problems in front of Sierra Leone with every bit of prejudice that they and their super-talented jocks can muster. Problems that cannot be solved no matter how wide Sierra Leone takes it, never mind how much power he has in reserve in the last two furlongs. What those five mean for Sierra Leone is that he has very much got to mind his manners through the entire race, meaning, his position among them. He cannot lollygag down in 9th up the backstretch and into the far turn before igniting the afterburners — there’s just too much talent in front of him for that.