Q4 outlook for Apple stock (APPL) – what to expect?

Among the tech darlings, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has seen a large share repricing in 2022 thanks to rising inflation and interest rates. The firm, however, is chugging along with its innovation and new hardware releases, with the latest iPad Pro launch just days away, with plans to release a Google Tablet-like home hub.  

Furthermore, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) named Apple their top pick on October 17, despite the investment firm recognizing rising challenges to consumer and enterprise spending. The analyst at Morgan Stanley mentioned several issues hitting the hardware business with sky-high inflation making predictions even more cumbersome.  

“While the market is increasingly pricing in ‘bad news’, we believe it’s still too early to get positive on hardware names, and see a challenging [third-quarter] setup.”

AAPL chart and analysis

When comparing the yearly performance of all stocks, AAPL is one of the better-performing stocks in the market, outperforming 72% of all stocks. Shares are trading at the lower part of their 52-week range, below all moving averages, with the price action showing a bear flag pattern, possibly indicating more downside to come. 

Technical analysis shows a support zone from $139.43 to $139.53 and a resistance zone from $145.44 to $148.66,

Analysts rate the stock a ‘strong buy,’ with the average price in the next 12 months expected to reach $181.93, 27.75% higher than the current trading price of $142.41. Notably, out of 28 Wall Street analysts, 23 have a ‘buy’ rating, 4 have a ‘hold’ rating, and one has a ‘sell’ rating.

Earnings growth

Moreover, Apple is one of the firms estimated to earn at least $1 billion per day in sales in 2023. 

The earnings report for Apple is expected to be released on October 27; any weakness in sales or a pullback on full-year expectations could see the shares continue the downward momentum.

A positive surprise may not swing the stock up by too much, as markets seem to be awaiting another rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and possibly new inflation readings.  

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