Bitcoin staged a sharp recovery on September 29, bouncing back to $112,000 after briefly slipping toward $110,000 earlier in the week.
The surge comes amid renewed optimism for the fourth quarter, historically one of Bitcoin’s strongest periods, but market watchers caution that unfilled CME futures gaps could inject volatility.
Data from CoinMarketCap shows that Bitcoin opened September near $109,600 before climbing steadily to a mid-month peak around $117,500. After retracing to $110,000, the market quickly regained momentum, pushing back above $112,000 in today’s trading session.
CME Gap Raises Questions
Crypto analyst Crypto Rover highlighted on X that the latest rally left a gap around $109,700 in the CME futures chart, a level that could act as a magnet for price corrections. “This Bitcoin pump looks bullish but left this weekend’s CME gap unfilled. Stay cautious,” Rover advised his 1M+ followers.
Strong Q4 Track Record
Despite short-term uncertainty, Rover pointed to Bitcoin’s history of strong performance in Q4 as a major reason for optimism.
Past Octobers have delivered explosive gains, including 456% in 2021, 182% in 2023, and 81% in 2024. He argued that the seasonal trend could support further upside, potentially driving prices to fresh highs if the pattern repeats.
Cycle Peak Concerns
At the same time, Rover warned that the broader cycle could be approaching its peak. Referencing long-term charts that map Bitcoin’s price action around halving events, he suggested that previous cycle tops were marked by similar parabolic moves before major corrections.
This mix of bullish seasonal data and looming technical risks underscores the uncertain landscape heading into October. Traders remain divided: some are eyeing new highs above $120,000 in the coming weeks, while others brace for a possible retest of $109,700 to close the CME gap.
With the SEC set to deliver decisions on multiple altcoin ETF filings in October and global macro conditions shifting rapidly, Bitcoin’s next moves are likely to define sentiment across the broader crypto market.
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Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics.
Source: https://coindoo.com/market/bitcoin-price-outlook-q4-expectations-market-peak-and-cme-gap-warnings/