Putin’s Threats Bring Risk Of Nuclear ‘Armageddon’ To Highest Level Since Cold War, Biden Warns

Topline

President Joe Biden on Thursday warned the world could face “Armageddon” if Russian leader Vladimir Putin makes good on threats to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, an unusually blunt statement and one of the most candid remarks on the risks of nuclear conflict from a U.S. leader since the Cold War as Moscow continues to suffer huge military setbacks and loses significant territory to Kyiv.

Biden said Putin’s threats have raised the risk of nuclear “Armageddon.”

AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

The risk of nuclear “Armageddon” is at its highest level “since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis” in 1962, said Biden, who was speaking at a Democratic fundraiser in New York.

The Cuban missile crisis is widely regarded as one of the closest moments the world has come to a catastrophic all-out nuclear war and Biden said he believes there is a “direct threat” nuclear weapons will be used in Ukraine if “things continue down the path they are going.”

Putin is “not joking” when he talks about using nuclear weapons, Biden stressed.

Biden said the White House is searching for Putin’s “off-ramp” to allow the Russian leader to back down.

Biden challenged Moscow’s nuclear doctrine—which includes an “escalate to de-escalate” nuclear strategy—and warned that even the use of a smaller tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine could rapidly escalate into a world-ending event.

News Peg

Putin and Russian officials have repeatedly raised the prospect of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Though Moscow has been known for nuclear saber rattling in the past, the threats have taken a more serious tone in recent weeks when Putin vowed to use all weapons in Russia’s arsenal to defend the illegally annexed Ukrainian territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Other nations are treating the threat seriously.

Key Background

Russia does not have full control over any of the four territories it illegally claims as its own and has suffered a series of heavy and embarrassing losses in Ukraine in recent weeks. Ukrainian forces, assisted with advanced weaponry from the West, are continuing to advance in the east and south of the country and have forced Russian troops to make hasty retreats. The situation has placed increasing pressure on Putin and his military leaders. This has been magnified by the civil unrest and widespread unease prompted by the country’s first mobilization drive since World War Two, which has led hundreds of thousands of people to flee the country and many more to injure themselves to escape the draft. Analysts fear the increasing pressure could make the Russian leader more likely to use nuclear weapons, something echoed by Biden with his talk of an “off-ramp.” Experts previously told Forbes Putin would most likely not start with Russia’s most powerful nuclear weapons, nor would he be likely to target a city in Ukraine. He would be most likely to pick a symbolic target using a smaller nuclear weapon to show he is serious and willing to take things further.

What We Don’t Know

Biden’s comments are stark and unusually frank for a U.S. president speaking on this topic. It is unclear whether they are based on new information. Earlier this week, Pentagon officials said they have seen no evidence that would alter U.S. nuclear posture in the region.

What To Watch For

It remains unclear how Washington and Western allies would respond to the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Russian leaders have said NATO would be too afraid of a “nuclear apocalypse” to intervene in Ukraine directly, even if Moscow used nuclear weapons, let alone respond in kind. NATO’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg warned Moscow of “severe consequences” if it uses nuclear weapons, echoing private warnings of “catastrophic consequences” from Washington, though this does not mean a retaliatory nuclear strike. Poland’s foreign minister Zbigniew Rau suggested a “devastating” NATO strike using conventional weapons as more appropriate.

Big Number

5,977. That’s how many nuclear warheads Russia has, according to an estimate by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), more than any other country. Along with the U.S., which has an estimated 5,428 warheads, Russia has approximately 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons. Even a limited nuclear war could be devastating and long-term effects could wipe out most of the global population.