Topline
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s allies claimed Monday’s deadly attack on Ukrainian cities were just the “first episode,” as they call for more indiscriminate attacks—but questions have emerged about Moscow’s dwindling stock of hard-to-replace, precision-guided weapons as Ukrainian forces continue to press forward on the battlefield.
Key Facts
Former Russian President and close Putin-ally Dmitry Medvedev called Monday’s strikes on major Ukrainian cities only the “first episode” of Russia’s broader effort to “dismantle” Ukraine, while other lawmakers in the country also demanded “cruel” reprisals.
But Russia’s ability to continue with such attacks is being questioned, with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noting that Monday’s attacks “wasted some of Russia’s dwindling precision weapons against civilian targets, as opposed to militarily significant targets.”
In its daily assessment Tuesday, the ISW said Russia’s reliance on precision weapons to attack Ukrainian cities may weaken its ability to halt Ukrainian counter-offensive operations in Kherson and Luhansk.
Despite this, multiple air raid alarms were sounded across major Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kyiv on Tuesday, as people were instructed to take shelter against incoming strikes.
According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian military, Russia fired 61 missiles and 32 air-launched munitions at Kyiv and other major cities on Monday, killing 19 people and injuring more than 100 so far.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian military claimed it has shot down 4 missiles fired by Russian aircraft on Tuesday, adding to its tally of 73 shootdowns on Monday.
News Peg
The U.K.’s defense ministry warned Tuesday of increasing discord and factionalism within Russia’s defense ministry and military leadership. The assessment said the appointment of General Sergei Surovikin as the commander of Ukraine’s invasion is a likely effort to tackle the friction and improve its operations in Ukraine. But the assessment notes that Surovikin himself will have to deal with factions within the Russian defense ministry “which is poorly resourced to achieve the political objectives it has been set in Ukraine.” Recently, the Guardian reported on internal opposition to Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu as he faces blame for the floundering campaign in Ukraine. Opposition to Shoigu is reportedly being led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner private military group—whose paid mercenaries are fighting alongside Russian troops in Ukraine—and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov—whose militiamen are also operating on the side of the Russians.
Chief Critic
Following Monday’s attacks, Ukraine’s foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said: “No, Putin was not “provoked” to unleash missile terror by “Crimea Bridge.” Russia had been constantly hitting Ukraine with missiles before the bridge, too. Putin is desperate because of battlefield defeats and uses missile terror to try to change the pace of war in his favor.”
Key Background
Russia’s latest attacks against civilian targets in Ukraine were in retaliation to a blast that destroyed a portion of the bridge connecting Crimea and Russia on Saturday. Putin—for whom the bridge was a marquee project and a sign of Russian power over the annexed peninsula—blamed Ukraine for the blast and called it an “act of terrorism.” Despite strongly implying its involvement Kyiv has not officially taken responsibility for the attack. Monday’s strikes were seen as a major escalation by Russia and prompted criticism both from Kyiv and the West. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated support for Ukraine following the “horrific strikes.” While Moscow’s actions received unexpected pushback from both China and India—which have previously avoided directly criticizing Russia’s invasion—with Beijing calling for de-escalation and New Delhi expressing concern about the deaths of civilians.
Further Reading
Russian Missile Strikes Across Kyiv Kill 19 After Putin Blames Ukraine For Crimea Bridge Attack (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2022/10/11/putin-allies-demand-more-attacks-on-ukraine-but-russia-may-not-have-enough-missiles/