Projecting Performance And Contract Value For OKC Thunder Veterans This Season

The Oklahoma City Thunder made quite a few moves this offseason, primarily centered around keeping their core pieces around long-term. With that in mind, Oklahoma City is still an extremely young team that is largely made up of young players.

In fact, of the 18 players currently on the Thunder roster on full-time NBA deals, only three are older than 25. Furthermore only seven players on the roster have at least three years of experience in the league.

When taking a look at those seven players, they make up the majority of OKC’s 2022-23 payroll. The question becomes are they worth what they’re getting paid at the top?

ProFitX is a data and analytics tool that provides real-time financial and performance insights powered by Artificial Intelligence. According to their model, each of these seven players are projected to outperform their 2022-23 contracts.

In terms of needing to prove value, perhaps the most interesting player on the Thunder roster this season is Darius Bazley. Entering his fourth NBA season, the 22-year-old is truly playing for another contract in Oklahoma City.

The 6-foot-8 forward will make $4.3 million in the upcoming season before becoming a restricted free agent next summer. If an agreement on an extension between Bazley and the Thunder isn’t finalized in the near future, the Thunder will have the chance to extend a qualifying offer of $6.2 million for the 2023-24 season. After that, he’d enter unrestricted free agency and could walk away from OKC for nothing in return.

There’s no doubt Bazley has the talent to be a cornerstone piece of this roster for the next half decade as the team build back towards contention. For him, it’s been inconsistency that’s the problem. Whether it’s game-by-game or month-by-month, Bazley has many highs and lows.

With that in mind, he had a spectacular finish to the 2021-22 season. Following the NBA All-Star break, Bazley produced 13.9 points and 5.5 rebounds through 22 games as a primary starter. He also drastically improved his offensive efficiency, going from 40.0% from the floor before the break to 48.5% after.

Bazley looked much more consistent during those final months of the season and will look to continue that success into the 2022-23 campaign. In fact, his ProFitX real-time contract value saw an uptick during that stretch of games.

It’s unclear exactly how much Bazley will demand on his next contract, but it’s worth noting he’s represented by Klutch Sports. One of the most well-known sports agencies in the world, Klutch is famous for landing its prospects lucrative contracts.

While Bazley and the Thunder continue to work towards a potential extension, three of his teammates inked new deals this summer. Between Lu Dort, Kenrich Williams and Mike Muscala, Oklahoma City committed to keeping key pieces of the roster around.

Dort got the largest contract of the three by far, signing an $87.5 million deal over five seasons. With the new deal kicking in immediately, the former undrafted player will earn almost $15.3 million this season.

While that’s a large number, the defensive-minded guard projects to be worth the investment. ProFitX projects Dort’s performance in the upcoming season to be worth over $18 million. Furthermore, with how quickly the cap number will rise over the next five years, his deal should only prove to be more team friendly as time goes on.

It’s been fascinating to watch Dort go from undrafted and signing to a two-way contract to becoming the second-highest paid player on the Thunder roster. He’s improved rapidly, getting exponentially better with every season that he steps on the floor. Not only is he a dominant perimeter defender, but he’s also improved on the offensive end where he averaged 17.2 points per contest before his season was cut short due to injury in February.

Another key piece who signed a deal this offseason was Kenrich Williams. His extension doesn’t kick in until next season, meaning he’ll be one of the best value contracts in the league in this year. Williams is set to make just $2 million in the 2022-23 campaign before his new four-year, $27.2 million deal begins.

With the defense and versatility he brings on both ends, the 27-year-old has emerged as one of the most important players on this young Thunder roster. A veteran on and off the court, he’s legitimately one of the most respected players in the entire locker room.

Over the past two seasons, Williams has really improved on the offensive end in Oklahoma City and makes the most of every shot he takes. As such, he’s become an extremely efficient scorer off the bench.

Teams around the league have called Thunder GM Sam Presti looking to acquire Williams the past two seasons, but to this point he still appears to be part of the long-term plans. Even if that changes, he’s projected to drastically outperform his contact this season and moving forward.

Another veteran that earned a new deal to stay in Oklahoma City this summer is Mike Muscala. Similar to Williams, his impact off the court is equally as valuable as what he does when he’s on it. After signing a two-year, $7 million deal, Muscala will continue to be a mentor to the young bigs on the roster while also being a productive player when is name is called.

Last season, he was one of the best shooting centers in the NBA, knocking down 42.9% of his 3-point attempts. Muscala was also the highest impact player on the roster as it related to plus/minus metrics.

While he was signed to his rookie max extension a year ago, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will officially begin playing under that contract in the upcoming season. Unsurprisingly, he’s projected to outperform that deal already this season, with ProFitX tagging his real-time value at more than $33.5 million.

In the upcoming season, Gilgeous-Alexander will once again be the face of the team at 24 years old. He’s coming off of a campaign in which he averaged 24.5 points, 5.9 assists and 5.0 boards per game. He’s been injured quite a bit over the past two seasons, but if he says healthy and gets slightly more efficient on the offensive end this season, Gilgeous-Alexander has a real shot at an NBA All-Star appearance.

This leaves Derrick Favors and Ty Jerome as the only two other players on the roster with at least three years of NBA experience. There’s no guarantee either will be on the roster next season given the Thunder are three players over the 15-man roster size.

Whether they get traded or outright waived, both should be pieces that draw interest from certain teams around the league. They’re both limited, but bring value to the table in a depth role on a playoff team. Additionally, Favors and Jerome are both projected to be more valuable than the contract they’re playing on this season.

This could legitimately be the final season in which the Thunder are near the bottom of the standings. With another year of development for the young guys and another top pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Oklahoma City could be pushing for the playoffs as soon as the 2023-24 season. Meanwhile, the Thunder have a solid group of veterans to work with as the younger prospects find their way.