Prediction market gamblers on Saturday made millions of dollars in minutes by betting on Donald Trump’s military strike on Venezuela.
In a post shared on X, one trader said he made $80,000 overnight using Polymarket by tracking signals tied to US military activity.
The trader pointed out that the United States had moved its largest aircraft carrier earlier on, which convinced him a strike on Venezuela was coming.
The only unknown was timing, so he built a simple bot to watch Domino’s pizza orders around the Pentagon, a pattern long linked to late-night government work.
The trader wrote, “The moment the pizza indicator bot spotted an unusual activity, I was alerted on my phone and immediately purchased as many ‘Will the US strike Venzuela’ shares on Polymarket. GG and thanks for playing.”
Early hours of the morning, Trump confirmed the strike on Truth Social, saying the United States had carried out a large-scale operation against Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, who were flown out of the country.
“The United States of America has successfully carried out a large scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country. This operation was done in conjunction with U.S. Law Enforcement. Details to follow. There will be a News Conference today at 11 A.M., at Mar-a-Lago,” said Trump.
Bets land before Trump confirms capture of Nicolás Maduro
By the time Trump spoke, Polymarket positions were already deep in profit.
A newly created Polymarket account had invested more than $30,000 on Maduro’s exit from power. After US forces took him into custody overnight, the trader walked away with about $400,000 in under 24 hours.
On prediction markets, insider trading is allowed. Traders openly act on private analysis and public signals tied to geopolitical events involving Venezuela.
Prediction markets have recently drawn scrutiny from regulators. Gaming commissions across the United States argue some platforms act like unlicensed sportsbooks. Sports contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket have grown quickly.
Kalshi ended a long legal fight with the Commodity Futures and Exchange Commission in 2025, but that calm ended when state gaming commissions began sending cease-and-desist letters.
Crypto and oil markets react as regulators circle prediction platforms
Trump later said at a press conference that the United States would temporarily run Venezuela during a transition period. He said the goal was to get oil production moving again.
“We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure and start making money for the country,” Trump said. He added, “They were pumping almost nothing by comparison to what they could have been.”
Hours after Maduro’s capture, senior figures from his government condemned the military operation and warned against US involvement. Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s chosen vice president, whom Trump said was sworn in on Saturday, called the capture “barbaric” and an “illegal and illegitimate kidnapping.”
She said it was an attack on the sovereignty of Venezuela and called for the “immediate release” of Maduro and his wife, saying he remained “the only president of Venezuela.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke to reporters at Mar-a-Lago and said Maduro had chances to avoid arrest. “Nicolás Maduro had multiple opportunities to avoid this. He was provided multiple very, very, very generous offers, and chose instead to act like a wild man.” Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged back above $91,000 as more than $60 million in leveraged short positions were wiped out in one hour after prices increased around $3,000 from lows seen after the US began strikes on Venezuela.
Trump linked Maduro’s removal to oil supply. He said Venezuela holds roughly 300 billion barrels of oil, the largest reserves in the world, more than Saudi Arabia. “We built Venezuela’s oil industry with American talent, drive, skill, and the socialist regime stole it from us,” Trump said. He added that the oil embargo he imposed remains “in full effect.”
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Source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/prediction-market-gamblers-trump-venezuela/