Predicting Where Jacob deGrom And The Top Free Agent Pitchers Will Land

Max Scherzer was a free agent last winter, but his name is being mentioned a lot in conjunction with the top two pitchers on the free agent market this offseason.

The three-time Cy Young Award winner reached the open market at age 37. While teams weren’t committed to signing Scherzer to a contract with a longer term, the New York Mets gave him a two-year deal worth $86.67 million with a player option for 2024 that would bring the total to $130 million if exercised.

Houston Astros owner Jim Crane told MLB.com this week that Justin Verlander, another three-time Cy Young winner, is seeking a similar deal on the open market. Two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom is likely to wind up with the same kind of contract after two injury-plagued seasons.

Here is a look at the top five pitchers available with educated guesses on where they will sign and for how much money. Predictions for the top free agent hitters can be found here.

JACOB deGROM

deGrom’s two National League Cy Young Awards with the Mets in 2018 and 2019 are a testament to him being one of the best pitchers in the game along with his four All-Star Game berths.

However, deGrom has made a total of 26 starts over the past two seasons because of injury. While he has not needed surgery and has a 12-6 record and sparkling 1.90 ERA during that time, the lengthy stays on the injured list must be a bit concerning to any team pursuing the 34-year-old.

It is easy to predict that a pitching-needy team would be willing to give deGrom a contract with a high AAV (average annual value) but with a shorter term. With owner Steve Cohen’s willingness to spend big, it seems most likely deGrom winds up staying with the Mets on a Scherzer-like deal.

Prediction: Mets for three years and $130 million

JUSTIN VERLANDER

Verlander made a remarkable return this past season at 39, winning his third American League Cy Young Award and leading the Houston Astros to a World Series championship. He led the AL in wins while going 18-4 with a league-best 1.75 ERA in 28 starts.

Verlander was returning from Tommy John reconstructive elbow surgery at an age when most pitchers have long been out of baseball. He made only one start during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season then was out for all of 2021.

While a reunion with the Astros seems like the most logical step, Houston has plenty of starting pitching depth and may not want to commit to Verlander. However, he certainly will pique the interest of other teams.

It’s instructive to note Verlander gave serious consideration to signing with the New York Yankees last winter before reupping with the Astros.

Prediction: Yankees for three years and $117 million

CARLOS RODONDON

The left-hander found a softer market than he likely expected last winter and wound up signing a two-year, $44-million contract with the San Francisco Giants that included an opt out. Rodon exercised the escape clause and is now a free agent again.

Rodon had a fine season, going 14-8 with a 2.88 ERA in 31 starts. He also showed he was healthy by making 31 starts and pitching 178 innings after logging 175 innings combined in the three previous seasons.

Rodon, 29, expressed how much he enjoyed pitching for the Giants during an interview with me in June. San Francisco has made it clear it intends to spend big money this winter, so bringing Rodon back seems like a logical move.

Prediction: Giants for five years and $140 million

KODAI SENGA

Senga is a bit of a wild card in the market as he will be coming to the major leagues following a distinguished career in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

The 29-year-old right-hander has compiled a 104-51 record over 11 seasons with a sparkling 2.42 ERA. This year, he went 11-6 with a 1.94 ERA in 22 games for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks.

Senga has been linked to various teams. The Boston Red Sox seem like a good fit after finishing last in the AL East this past season.

Prediction: Red Sox for four years and $72 million

CHRIS BASSITT

Bassitt has quietly been one of the better starting pitchers in the major leagues in recent years. Since reaching the big leagues for good in 2018, he has posted a 44-23 record and 3.29 ERA in 107 games (100 starts).

In his first season with the Mets this year, he went 15-9 with a 3.42 ERA in 30 starts. That came a year after he went 12-4 for an AL-leading .750 winning percentage for the Oakland Athletics.

The 33-year-old isn’t flashy and doesn’t generate many headlines. Yet he figures to have plenty of suitors.

Prediction: Twins for three years, $57 million