Predicting Outcomes For Oklahoma City Thunder

The 2023 NBA Draft is less than 48 hours away, meaning the Oklahoma City Thunder and other teams around the league are at the point in the cycle in which final decisions are being made.

Not only are franchises determining which prospects they value and what their boards look like leading up to the final minutes before the draft, but they’re also exploring options to move in the order on draft night. Whether it’s the opportunity to move up and land a premier prospect, or trading back to acquire an asset while also selecting a player in the same tier, these discussions will be taking place league-wide before and during the draft itself.

For Oklahoma City specifically, there’s a variety of ways this draft could go. In the current state of the rebuild, the franchise is still in a position to take the best player available when on the clock, irrespective of position. Thunder GM Sam Presti is always open to making moves on draft night and will absolutely consider moving up, but also moving back.

While it’s impossible to know exactly what Oklahoma City will do, or even what prospects will be available when it’s the Thunder’s turn to pick, let’s predict a how a few scenarios could play out.

Scenario 1: Stay Put

Presti views everything as an asset, whether it’s players, draft picks, or even cap space. As such, he’s always looking for ways to maximize the Thunder’s assets. If the cost is too high to move up for a player the front office views as a franchise-altering talent, it won’t happen. Alternatively, if the return on investment isn’t where it needs to be to justify moving back, there’s a really good chance Oklahoma City just stays put and selects at No. 12 overall.

Pick Prediction: Bilal Coulibaly (France)

Scenario 2: Trade Up

Considering the Thunder’s pick sits late in the lottery, moving up more than a few spots becomes extremely difficult. With that in mind, OKC is sitting on a wide variety of assets that can be used to trade up and select another key piece of the puzzle.

Early Lottery (5-7)

If the Thunder opts to really make a splash and move up near the top of the lottery, it’s unlikely that breaking into the top four will be feasible. However, the few picks just beyond the No. 4 overall pick are absolutely obtainable for the right price. If Oklahoma City did move into the early part of the lottery, it would have to be for a prospect that the front office is in love with and thinks could ultimately be a cornerstone piece on a future championship roster.

Pick Prediction: Jarace Walker (Houston)

Mid Lottery (8-11)

What’s much more likely is that the Thunder moves up just a few spots. Especially if there’s a sense that a player high on OKC’s board could be taken within a handful of selections of No. 12, jumping up to get that prospect would be worth the investment.

Pick Prediction: Taylor Hendricks (UCF)

Scenario 3: Trade Back

While trading back is never the most exciting thing for a fanbase, it often pays dividends. Acquiring additional assets while also drafting a prospect that is coveted by the front office is a no-brainer in the right scenario.

Mid-First (13-20)

One example in which trading back would make a ton of sense is if there’s multiple prospects on the board at No. 12 overall that Oklahoma City has in the same tier and values equally. That would present the opportunity to trade back several spots in the order and still have a great shot at landing one of the prospects that would have been taken in the original lottery position. Whether it’s moving further back in the lottery, or even outside of the lottery into the middle part of the first round, keep an eye on the Thunder to make this type of move if none of the projected top ten prospects slip to No. 12 on draft night.

Pick Prediction: Leonard Miller (G League)

Late First (21-30)

Alternatively, Oklahoma City could be on the clock at No. 12 and decide that none of the prospects left are worth a late lottery to mid-first selection. In that case, trading back towards the end of the first round or even out of it altogether could be on the table. Every team evaluates prospects and puts them in tiers, meaning the Thunder could have very few players that grade out as worthy of a top-20 selection. Just because 20 prospects will be taken by the time the No. 21 overall pick comes around doesn’t mean that all of these players have a top-20 grade. Regardless, if Oklahoma City were to move into the late part of the first-round, there still should be quality talent remaining on the board.

Pick Prediction: Olivier-Maxence Prosper (Marquette)

Fortunately for the Oklahoma City Thunder, there’s no real pressure to make any impulse moves in this draft. The team is already in a great position moving forward and will have several levers to pull if the right trade does present itself on Thursday night. If not, staying put at No. 12 should give the Thunder every opportunity to add a key piece to an already talented, young roster.