- The Pound Sterling falls sharply against the US Dollar as the latter strengthens amid a sell-off in technology stocks globally.
- Investors expect the Fed to call a pause in the current policy-easing cycle.
- Morgan Stanley has revised the UK GDP growth rate for 2025 lower to 0.9%.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) declines below 1.2450 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s European session after failing to break above the psychological resistance of 1.2500. The GBP/USD falls sharply as the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar has increased amid a dismal market mood.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, jumps to near 108.00 after a sharp sell-off in power, data center, and companies offering top chatbot stocks across the globe have strengthened its appeal as a safe-haven. Global technology stocks nosedive amid worries that Chinese DeepSeek’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) model could disrupt the global market, given its at-par performance against US chatbots like OpenAI and Meta without relying on higher energy demand and sophisticated semiconductor chips.
Apart from that, deepening fears of tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday are acting as tailwinds for the US Dollar.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed imposing a 2.5% tariff universally and has also guided to increase by the same amount every month, Financial Times (FT) reported. Market participants expect that a gradual approach to tariff hikes would be favorable for the US and other nations in negotiating a deal.
Meanwhile, the Fed is almost certain to announce a pause in the current policy-easing spell and keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday. However, the Fed’s monetary policy guidance is expected to be slightly hawkish due to the stubborn inflation outlook and stable labor demand.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades with caution as UK stagflation fears loom large
- The Pound Sterling exhibits a mixed performance against its major peers on Tuesday. The British currency is expected to trade cautiously as investors worry that the United Kingdom (UK) economy could face risks of stagflation amid weakening labor demand and a stubborn inflation outlook.
- The hiring momentum in the UK private sector has been hit hard since Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves raised employers’ contribution to National Insurance (NI) in the Autumn Budget. The preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report for January showed that employment levels have decreased for the fourth month running, which businesses often linked to rising cost pressures. The agency added that many firms suggested that the forthcoming hike in “employers’ NI” contribution had resulted in “cutbacks to recruitment plans”, while others cited the impact of a post-Budget slump in business confidence.
- Though the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December came in softer than expectations and November’s reading, it is expected to remain broadly sticky as private firms pass on the impact of higher wage growth, energy prices, and prices paid for imported raw materials to consumers. The inflation rate was the steepest for just over one-and-a-half years in both the manufacturing and services sectors, S&P Global reported.
- Weak employment and higher inflation are expected to lead to stagflation in the UK economy. This will pose a bigger risk for the Bank of England (BoE), which is scheduled to announce its first monetary policy decision of 2025 on February 6. Traders are pricing in a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate reduction, pushing borrowing rates to 4.5% amid the weak economic outlook.
- Investment banking firm Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast for the UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth lower to 0.9% for the year from 1.3%, citing signs of a slowdown in labor demand and faltered economic prospects.
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling faces offers near 50-day EMA
The Pound Sterling faces selling pressure against the US Dollar on Tuesday after failing to extend its upside above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.2500. However, the near-term outlook of the GBP/USD pair remains firm as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.2390.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves higher above 50.00 from the 20.00-40.00 range, suggesting that the bearish momentum has ended, at least for now.
Looking down, the January 13 low of 1.2100 and the October 2023 low of 1.2050 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the December 30 high of 1.2607 will act as key resistance.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-slumps-against-usd-as-global-sell-off-in-tech-stocks-increases-safe-haven-demand-202501280756