The Pound Sterling (GBP) revisits the three-month high around 1.3535 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair trades firmly as the Greenback underperforms, with unexpectedly stronger flash United States (US) Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data failing to diminish Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish expectations.
During the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh 11-week low near 97.75.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Tuesday that the economy grew by 4.3% compared to the same quarter of the previous year, faster than 3.8% in the second quarter this year.
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders see a 70.6% that the Fed will reduce interest rates by at least 50 bps in 2026. The expected scope of interest rate cuts is higher than the single cut projected for next year by officials in the monetary policy announcement last week.
Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish expectations for 2026 remain upbeat as the US GDP report released on Tuesday lacks evidence of strong job creation despite robust growth. The report showed that businesses invested heavily in equipment and Artificial Intelligence (AI).
Economists have stated that the strong GDP growth appears to be more of a K-shaped recovery, with household spending remaining heavy in recreational activities. The demand by low and middle-income households remains weak due to high inflation and a sluggish job market.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades higher against its major peers
- The Pound Sterling trades broadly higher against its major currency peers ahead of Christmas Eve on Wednesday. The British currency has remained firm since the monetary policy announcement by the Bank of England (BoE) last Thursday, as it maintained the gradual monetary easing stance.
- At the meeting, the BoE reduced interest rates by 25 bps to 3.75% with a tight 5:4 vote, and guided that monetary policy will remain on a gradual downward path. The BoE refrained from supporting aggressive easing as inflation is still well higher than the 2% target despite cooling down in the last two months.
- The United Kingdom (UK) headline inflation has decelerated to 3.2% YoY in November after peaking at 3.8% in the July-September period.
- The BoE kept the door open for further interest rate cuts as UK labor market conditions have remained weak.
- Meanwhile, investors seek fresh cues about how much the BoE will cut interest rates in 2026. According to a report from Reuters, traders expect the central bank to deliver at least one 25-bps interest rate cut in the first half of next year.
- In Wednesday’s session, the GBP/USD pair will be influenced by the US Initial Jobless Claims data, which will be published at 13:30 GMT.
Technical Analysis: GBP/USD breaks above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 1.3500
On the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3513. The pair holds above the rising 20-day EMA at 1.3364, keeping the short-term bias pointing higher.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 70.12 is overbought and warns of stretched momentum. Measured from the 1.3794 high to the 1.3014 low, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3496 has been reclaimed, while the 78.6% retracement at 1.3627 is the next resistance.
Trend support remains defined by the ascending 20-day EMA, with dips expected to test that area. The previously mentioned RSI would need to cool to ease upside pressure and allow consolidation. A close below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3404 would dent the bullish tone and expose the 38.2% retracement at 1.3312. If the latter is breached, it would open the room to a further extension of the recovery.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.