Finance

Pound Sterling remains on backfoot on slower UK wage growth, UK Inflation data eyed

10 months ago
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  • The Pound Sterling faces a sell-off after the release of lower-than-expected UK wage growth in the quarter to November.
  • Employment levels remain steady despite increasing economic headwinds.
  • Risk-off market mood, UK inflation data could keep the Pound Sterling under pressure.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) falls sharply on Tuesday’s European morning session as the United Kingdom Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a sharp slowdown in the Average Earnings data for three months ending November. The labor market remained steady in this period despite vulnerable economic conditions in the domestic and overseas markets. A softer-than-projected wage growth is expected to convince investors more about early rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE).

The UK economy is exposed to a technical recession as the ONS reported a contraction in the third quarter of 2023. The BoE is also less confident about any growth in the final quarter of 2023 due to higher interest rates and a deepening cost-of-living crisis. Now, a softer inflation outlook, along with fears of further economic pain, could allow BoE policymakers to roll back their tight interest rate stance.

The GBP/USD pair has faced a significant correction as the deepening crisis in the Middle East region has increased the appeal for safe-haven assets. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has refreshed its weekly high ahead of the US Retail Sales data, which will provide more cues about the timeframe in which the Federal Reserve (Fed) could plan the rate-cut cycle.

Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling remains vulnerable ahead of UK Inflation data

  • The Pound Sterling has printed a fresh weekly low near 1.2660 as the ONS reported steady job market figures and softening labor costs in the three months ending November.
  • In this period, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, as anticipated by the market participants.
  • The UK employers hired 73K job-seekers in November, a figure significantly higher than the 50K jobs added in the three months to October.
  • Individuals claiming jobless benefits rose sharply to 11.7K in December against a slight increase of 0.6K in November.
  • Average Earnings excluding bonuses decelerated to 6.6%, as expected by market participants, against 7.2% growth in the quarter to October. Earnings data including bonuses grew at a slower pace of 6.5% against the consensus of 6.8% and the prior reading of 7.2%.
  • High wage growth has remained a major driving factor contributing to price pressures and robust consumer spending in the UK.
  • A sharp decline in UK wage growth is expected to weaken arguments of those officials of the Bank of England who support elevated interest rates for a longer period.
  • The BoE could discuss early rate cuts as the economy is on the brink of a technical recession after GDP contracted in the third quarter of 2023.
  • After the UK labor market data, investors will focus on the inflation data for December, which will be released on Wednesday. Further softening of the UK inflation data would strengthen the case of early rate cuts by the BoE.
  • Meanwhile, the market mood remains downbeat as the Middle East crisis has deepened. Iran-backed-Houthis have threatened to retaliate for airstrikes from the United States and the UK in Yemen.
  • The US Dollar Index (DXY) has printed a fresh weekly high near 103.00 as optimism for early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve persists. Investors await fresh cues about when the Fed will start unwinding its restrictive monetary policy stance.
  • This week, monthly US Retail Sales data for December and the Fed’s Beige Book will be in focus. An upbeat Retail Sales data would allow Fed policymakers to maintain interest rates at the current levels until June.

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling eyes support near 1.2630

The Pound Sterling witnessed a steep fall after a strong breakdown of the rising channel chart pattern formed on an hourly timeframe. The near-term appeal has dampened as the Cable has slipped below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Cable is expected to find intermediate support around 1.2612, the low from December 13.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shifted into the 20.00-40.00 range, indicating bearish momentum has been triggered.

The broader appeal for the GBP/USD has also been impacted significantly as the pair has dropped below the 20-day EMA, which trades around 1.2700.

BoE FAQs

The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).

When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.

In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-slides-as-softening-uk-wage-growth-eases-inflation-outlook-202401160743