Topline
A storm is brewing in the Atlantic Ocean, threatening to bring a weekend filled with gusty winds, heavy rains and dangerous rip currents to the Eastern Seaboard from Florida to New England and potentially become the fifteenth named storm of the season.
Depending on how the system’s track coastal towns from Florida to New England could see heavy rains … [+]
Key Facts
A low pressure area off the east coast of Florida could become a subtropical storm as early as Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The National Hurricane Center estimated there is a 40% chance the area of low pressure becomes a subtropical storm in the next seven days and a 10% chance it becomes a subtropical storm in the next 48 hours.
Regardless of how the storm develops, the National Hurricane Center said it will bring heavy rain, gusty winds to gale force and high surf to portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S.
Rain from the system will begin late Wednesday in Florida as the storm moves north on Thursday and Friday.
The National Weather Service in Morehead City, North Carolina, warned on social media that the rainfall from the storm could reach four to six inches in some places increasing the chance of flooding.
The National Weather Service in Baltimore-Washington warned of a system approaching over the weekend from the coastal Carolinas but said its still uncertain where the heaviest of rains will be; New York City’s National Weather Service office similarly noted “track and timing still need to be resolved,” but computer models are predicting widespread rainfall totals of up to two inches across the area this weekend.
What To Watch For
If the storm develops into a tropical or subtropical storm, it will be called Ophelia.
Tangent
There are two other systems being monitored in the Atlantic. Category 1 Hurricane Nigel is a couple hundred miles away from Bermuda but is not expected to make landfall. A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is gaining momentum with the National Hurricane Center projecting a 70% chance it eventually develops.
Key Background
It has been a storm-filled summer and early fall. Already this year, there have been 14 named storms, including six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The average Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1 and ends November 30, has 14 named storms in total. Forecasters say seven typically become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. Ocean conditions and the “record-warm Atlantic” surface temperatures led the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to forecast 14 to 21 named storms this season.
Further Reading
Tropical Storm Nigel Likely To Become Hurricane Tonight—Will Approach Major Hurricane Status This Week (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/anafaguy/2023/09/20/possible-subtropical-storm-could-drench-most-of-east-coast-in-latest-atlantic-threat/