Former President Donald Trump has regained his previous high in the Republican presidential nomination odds, according to the political prediction market PredictIt. Trump’s “stock” climbed back to 41 cents Thursday, edging out Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by a single penny.
Since late January, Trump and DeSantis have been neck and neck, with DeSantis holding a slight lead most of the time on PredictIt, a website that allows users to make predictions on political events.
The former president said on Truth Social Saturday that he expects to face criminal charges for alleged violations of campaign finance laws relating to payments made in 2016 to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels. Trump’s former lawyer, Michael Cohen, reportedly arranged a $130,000 payment to silence Daniels about an alleged affair with Trump.
DeSantis took an 8-cent lead on Sunday. While news of an impending arrest would have sent any other candidate into a tailspin, Trump has proven once again he’s anything but an ordinary politician.
Despite the legal issues, or maybe because of them, Trump’s odds of securing the nomination are on the rise.
“I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters, OK,” Trump said while campaigning in 2016. With the former president’s odds rising while a potential arrest hangs over his head, it seems his outlandish assertion — joke? — may not have been far from the truth. Or it could just be an indication that prognosticators believe his latest legal problems will, like those that preceded it, end without a knockout blow.
While the PredictIt market is far from a perfect indicator of political sentiment, it has become a widely tracked metric. For now, it’s telling us that Trump’s latest legal woes are proving to be more of a selling point than a hindrance.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brandonkochkodin/2023/03/24/possible-mug-shot-and-fingerprinting-have-made-trump-more-appealing-to-bettors/