Position for a trading range 145-150 from now until Q1 2024 – TDS

Wide yield differentials have driven USD/JPY to revisit its 2022 high near 152. Economists at TD Securities analyze the pair’s outlook.

FX intervention warnings may prove too little to mark a turnaround in the JPY

FX intervention warnings have intensified but may prove too little to mark a turnaround in the JPY.

Without the BoJ exiting NIRP, it’s hard to make a bullish case for the JPY given fundamentals. Likely, MoF officials are buying time for the BoJ and may choose to ease off the pressure on USD/JPY through FX interventions as a weak JPY has become a political issue for the government amid rising cost-of-living pressures.

Position for a trading range 145-150 from now until Q1’24.