Polling On Trump’s Big Bill: How Unpopular Is It?

Just how unpopular is President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)? Judging from the headlines and new polls, one might answer, using the pollsters’ terminology, “not very” or “not at all” popular.

I don’t doubt the polls. Poll analyst G. Elliot Morris has helpfully given us a rundown of all the latest ones, and the verdict appears to be unanimous. To take just three highly regarded ones, 27% of registered voters in Quinnipiac’s early June poll supported the legislation, while 53% were opposed. The Kaiser Family Foundation poll found 35% of adults in favor in early June and 64% opposed. The latest mid-June Fox News poll of registered voters pegged the results at 38% support to 59% opposition. Additionally, far more voters in the Fox poll said that the bill would hurt their families more (49%) than help them (23%). Less than half (49%) of Republicans say the bill would help!

But there are other ways to read the polls of the past few weeks that give us a better sense of how consequential the legislation will be in terms of public opinion, especially as it relates to the congressional elections in 2026.

In an early June Washington Post/Ipsos poll, 34% of respondents said they had heard a great deal or a good amount about the just-passed House version of the bill. In a Morning Consult poll released on July 1, as the Senate prepared for a vote, 38% said that they had seen, heard, or read a lot about the bill. This was a high-water mark in their tracking, but the response was not significantly different from the earlier Post/Ipsos poll. Other issues such as the Iran strike commanded far more attention. This relative lack of attention doesn’t take away from the fact that most people oppose it, but it may dilute some of the political potency of some of the legislation’s unpopular provisions.

In understanding public sentiment, it is important to acknowledge that some of the bill’s provisions are very popular. Extending the Trump tax cuts for all but the wealthy (with tax thresholds defined differently in the polls) is popular. In the Washington Post/Ipsos poll, for example, 73% favored extending the tax cuts for those with incomes under $100,000 dollars (or $200,000 for couples). Sixty-five percent supported eliminating the tax on tips. Increasing the child tax credit is popular (at 72% in this poll), and polls show that the work requirement for able-bodied, nondisabled individuals generally garners more support than opposition. Fifty-two percent in the Post/Ipsos poll supported the work requirement. In the poll, by a narrow 42% to 37%, adults supported ending the electric vehicle tax credit. Cuts to Medicaid and extending tax cuts for wealthy Americans are deeply unpopular, but the bill is a mixed bag for most people.

Confidence in Washington across Democratic and Republican administrations has been low for a long time, and some of the opposition to the legislation in polls probably reflects the widespread belief that Americans rarely think they will benefit from big money bills in Washington.

All recent polls have shown sharp partisan divisions about the legislation, but most show that Democrats oppose the bill more strongly than Republicans support it. In Quinnipiac’s poll, for example, 67% of Republicans supported the bill, but 89% of Democrats opposed it. That is a real problem for the GOP. A small fortune is already being spent on Republican and Democratic talking points in districts thought to be competitive. The Democrats have an edge at this point in the messaging wars and Republicans in districts with rural hospitals and large Medicaid populations are feeling the heat, but it is too early to make any definitive pronouncements about an election that is still more than a year away.

Trump has had a good summer thus far, with the strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, a good June jobs report, a potential Mideast ceasefire, the decline in border crossing, and the signing of this bill. But there are other issues— such as continuing high inflation and potential immigration overreach— that could be more important to voters next fall. Most Americans have been celebrating the Fourth of July and not thinking much about Washington. The verdict on his big beautiful bill is still out.