Plurality Of Americans Want Congress To Legalize Abortion Rights, Poll Finds

Topline

Americans favor legislation that would legalize abortion nationwide by a nearly 20-point margin, a new Morning Consult/Politico poll finds, as the Senate prepares to vote on a bill codifying abortion rights into law with the Supreme Court expected to let states ban the procedure by overturning Roe v. Wade.

Protesters march past the US Capitol as they take part in the Women’s March and Rally for Abortion … [+] Justice in Washington, DC, on October 2, 2021.

AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

The poll—conducted May 3, after Politico reported a draft opinion showing a majority of Supreme Court justices in support of overturning Roe—found 47% of respondents support legislation that would establish federal abortion rights.

Only 29% of respondents would oppose such a bill, and 23% were unsure.

Democrats were much more in favor of such legislation than Republicans, with 63% backing a federal abortion rights bill versus 31% of Republicans and 46% of Independents.

Fewer respondents, 39%, thought it was at least somewhat likely that Congress would actually pass such legislation, versus 36% who think it’s unlikely and 26% who aren’t sure.

The same 47% share believe that abortion should be legal nationwide, while 19% want it left to the states and 21% believe it should be illegal nationwide.

Big Number

50%. That’s the share of respondents who believe Roe should not be overturned—up from 45% in December—versus only 28% who think it should be. While only 40% thought the Supreme Court was actually likely to overturn the 1973 ruling a few months ago, 57% believe justices will now. Polling has consistently found Americans are broadly in favor of legal access to abortion.

What To Watch For

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has vowed to hold a vote on legislation codifying the right to an abortion, which Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) told PBS NewsHour Tuesday could come next week. The Senate has already previously failed to pass abortion rights legislation, when the Women’s Health Protection Act was blocked in February after the House passed it. It’s unlikely legislation could pass now, as several key senators remain opposed to WHPA because they believe it goes too far (the bill would outlaw many existing state restrictions that don’t ban abortion entirely). Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who oppose WHPA, have introduced a narrower bill that could garner more support. It’s unlikely to get the 60 votes that would be necessary for it to pass, however, and Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) said Tuesday they’re still opposed to abolishing the filibuster, which would lower the threshold to advance legislation from 60 votes to a simple majority.

What We Don’t Know

How the Supreme Court overturning Roe would affect the midterms in November. The poll found 58% of respondents believe it’s at least somewhat important to vote for a candidate that supports abortion access, including 79% of Democrats, while only 44% care about voting for someone who opposes it (60% of Republicans). That said, previous polling has shown more Republicans than Democrats are enthusiastic about turning out in November, so it remains to be seen whether Americans’ support for abortion rights will be enough to get them to the polls.

Key Background

The Supreme Court appears poised to overturn Roe in the coming weeks in a case concerning Mississippi’s 15-week abortion ban and whether states can restrict abortion, which would likely lead to approximately 26 states banning or severely restricting the procedure. The ruling will be released before the court’s term ends, likely in June. Politico obtained a draft opinion from February written by Justice Samuel Alito that strikes down Roe and declares it “egregiously wrong.” Chief Justice John Roberts on Tuesday confirmed the authenticity of the opinion, which Politico reports was signed on to by four other justices, but said it should not be viewed as the final ruling or any justice’s “final position” on the case. Democrats in Congress have been working to pass abortion rights legislation in recent months in anticipation the Supreme Court would take such a drastic step, with the House passing WHPA in January in a 218-211 vote before it failed in the Senate.