Players With Expiring Contracts Are Most Likely To Be Traded By Aug. 1

With 12 spots for the taking in the playoffs and the trade deadline less than a month away, big-league teams are trying to decide whether they are buyers or sellers – and whether to mortgage high-salaried stars.

Teams that consider themselves contenders traditionally make mid-season deals, while clubs already out of the running will be anxious to oblige and cut payroll at the same time.

Dozens of name players have expiring contracts that makes them more likely to move even though teams that acquire them realize they might be trading for a two-month rental.

The trades of Aroldis Chapman (Royals to Rangers) and Eduardo Escobar (Mets to Angels) suggests the Summer of ‘23 will be an active trading season.

Pitchers on expiring contracts include Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias (Dodgers), Aaron Nola (Phillies), Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery (Cardinals), Lucas Giolito (White Sox), Blake Snell (Padres), Sonny Gray (Twins), Shane Bieber (Guardians).

Position players in the same situation are Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), Rhys Hoskins (Phillies), Adam Duvall and Kike Hernandez (Red Sox), and J.D. Martinez (Dodgers), among others.

Overshadowing the entire market is the status of two-way star Shohei Ohtani, whose one-year, $30 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels expires after the season, making him an unrestricted free agent for the first time. He has never played for a winning team and is adamant about playing for a contender – perhaps the Los Angeles Dodgers if he wants to stay in Southern California.

With teammate Mike Trout out 4-8 weeks with a fractured hand, the Angels’ tenuous bid to win the American League West or a wild-card berth took a hit.

Team performance over the next few weeks may indicate whether Ohtani goes up for sale.

At the same time, the Angels don’t want to risk losing him if they think they can sign him again – even though the 28-year-old star is expected to command something in the neighborhood of 10 years and $500 million.

It should be easier to trade anyone else, although even a prorated version of Max Scherzer’s $43.3 million per annum might be hard to swallow – unless the Mets can be persuaded to pay some of it.

Scherzer, soon to be 39, has three Cy Young awards in his trophy case and has shown flashes of his former form this season. He’s also said he’s willing to waive the no-trade clause in his contract.

Two other Cy Young Award recipients, Snell and Bieber, are more likely to move, though Kershaw has turned down past free agent offers in an obvious preference to stay with the Dodgers. He just wouldn’t look right in any other uniform, though that’s what baseball insiders said before Freddie Freeman left Atlanta after 12 years to jump to Los Angeles.

Taking Ohtani off the table until Angels owner Arte Moreno makes up his mind, here are the top 10 players most likely to be traded:

1. David Robertson, Mets – At age 38, he’s enjoying a revival as a closer, filling the enormous shoes vacated by the injured Edwin Diaz. With so many contenders needing relief help, New York should be able to exhort a package of prospects for the veteran right-hander, especially if they throw in outfielder Tommy Pham.

2. Lucas Giolito, White Sox – At age 28, the 6’6″ right-handed starter would be a welcome addition to anyone’s rotation. The fact that he hails from Santa Monica makes the Dodgers a perfect fit.

3. Joey Gallo, Twins – Still just 29, this slugging outfielder resurrected his career in Minnesota after floundering with both the Yankees and Dodgers last year. A left-handed hitter whose resume includes two 40-homer seasons, he also supplies Gold Glove outfield defense.

4. Adam Duvall, Red Sox – Like Gallo, he’s a strong defensive outfielder with a power bat even though he strikes out far too frequently. Because he broke his wrist in both of the last two seasons, Duvall has yet to make friends with the Green Monster in Boston. Plus he’s 34.

5. Marcus Stroman, Cubs – Unable to work out an extension in Chicago, this 2023 All-Star is a good bet to go somewhere else. The shortest pitcher in the NL at 5’7″ tall, he’s a workhorse who always takes the ball but needs better support (he took a lifetime mark of 67-67 into this year).

6. Rich Hill, Pirates – This 6’5″ southpaw starter is the oldest active player at age 43. He’s already had three separate stints with the Red Sox, who could use his services again. Hill, like Stroman, needs only run support to succeed.

7. Jordan Montgomery, Cardinals – Because he throws left-handed and won’t turn 31 until December, this former Yankee will have several suitors if St. Louis makes him available.

8. Joc Pederson, Giants – A former postseason star for the Braves, he had been a left-handed platoon player before Gabe Kapler started using him more often. At his best under pressure, he is also capable of keeping a clubhouse loose – a great asset during the pressure of the playoffs.

9. Shane Bieber, Guardians – If Cleveland decides it can’t re-sign him, they might gauge the market to see what this former Cy Young Award starter is worth. He’d be worth a lot to a contender, which would help the Guardians add a package of prospects for the future.

10. J.D. Martinez, Dodgers – Even though he’ll start the July 11 All-Star Game as the National League’s designated hitter, he’s the best trade chip the Dodgers have in their quest for pitching. The 12-year veteran has had two 40-homer seasons but is 36 years old.