Placing New San Diego Padre Juan Soto Into Historical Perspective

Last week’s trading deadline was a humdinger, and the main course was the historic deal that sent young superstar Juan Soto (along with 1B Josh Bell) from the Nationals to the Padres in exchange for a massive package including entrenched major leaguers (1B Luke Voit and LHP Mackenzie Gore) and top prospects (OF Robert Hassell III, SS C.J. Abrams, OF James Wood and RHP Jarlin Susana). You can see my reviews of NL and AL deadline activity at the indicated links.

Just how good is Soto, anyway? We all know he’s really young and really good, but what makes him so special and so unique among all players ever moved at the trading deadline?

First off, he’s 23, and doesn’t turn 24 until after the 2022 season ends. Players that young and anywhere near as good as Soto never get traded at the deadline, mainly because they’re nowhere near free agency at that age. Soto, on the other hand, debuted in the major leagues on May 20, 2018, at the tender age of 19. This means he is but one-plus seasons away from becoming eligible for free agency.

The Nationals reportedly offered Soto as much as $440M over 15 years to remain in Washington, but he resisted all of their overtures. The club then had to make the choice whether to let the clock run, which would reduce the time any acquiring club would control Soto, presumably shrinking the value of trade packages offered in return. The Nats swallowed hard, and took the bold step of moving the game’s most valuable trade asset at the point they perceived his value to be the highest. There’s no “fair” deal for a player as young and as good as Soto, but if Hassell, Abrams and Wood each live up to their considerable promise (an unlikely prospect), the Nats will be happy.

Now, an onlooker might state that Soto is having an off year, hitting “just” .249-.411-.486 thus far in 2022. I’d say to that person, in this, a somewhat offensive-deprived season, that’s good enough for a 160 OPS+ (per Baseball Reference), which just happens to exactly match Soto’s career mark. Through Sunday’s games, Soto was a .291-.428-.538 hitter. That’s pretty insane, “off” year or not.

I maintain a database that goes back to 1901, measuring the number of standard deviations above or below league average OBP and SLG recorded by every MLB regular. It doesn’t adjust for home park or defensive position – just the raw numbers. I’ve then gone back and added each player’s cumulative career standard deviations above/below league average OBP and SLG. That career number isn’t the point of this post, but it should be noted that Soto already ranked as the #184 offensive player in the game’s modern history through only four seasons as a regular, at age 22 as of the end of the 2022 season. Right behind John Mayberry, right ahead of Jose Bautista. Ahead of Mookie Betts, who’s been playing a lot longer than Soto. We’ll talk about where Soto might be headed in a moment or two.

The key question to be addressed first – how does Soto match up to other players of his age and/or experience level throughout the game’s history?

Through 2022, Soto had accumulated 11.23 cumulative standard deviations above league average OBP and 6.78 above league average SLG, for a total of 18.01. To simply be an MLB regular for four seasons at age 22 is a rare feat – before Soto, only 14 players (including Robin Yount, who actually was a regular for 5 seasons at that age) did so. Some of those guys (Yount, Freddie Lindstrom, Buddy Lewis, Ed Kranepool, Cass Michaels) were just OK with the bat at such an early age. Of the other 10, Soto accumulated the most combined standard deviations above average of the group.

And it’s quite a group. Ty Cobb (7.51 OBP + 10.36 SLG = 17.87), Mel Ott (5.63 + 5.90 = 11.53), Bryce Harper (5.23 + 5.46 = 10.69), Mickey Mantle (4.08 + 5.79 = 9.87), Ken Griffey Jr. (3.37 + 5.76 = 9.13), Tony Conigliaro (1.87 + 6.48 = 8.35), Sherry Magee (2.48 + 5.86 = 8.34), Cesar Cedeno (1.20 + 3.93 = 5.13) and Al Kaline (1.35 + 3.16 = 4.51). A bunch of Hall of Famers, near Hall of Famers and a couple woulda-shoulda types. Soto’s OBP component towers over the group, and his SLG component is better than everyone but Cobb’s. Pretty amazing.

But that group only includes players who were regulars by age 19, a pretty significant restriction. What if we expand it to include all players with four years as MLB regulars? Soto no longer sits on top – eight players move ahead of him. Babe Ruth (11.53 + 16.80 = 28.33), Ted Williams (11.60 + 11.36 = 22.96), Frank Thomas (11.28 + 10.41 = 21.69), Nap Lajoie (8.85 + 12.15 = 21.00), Joe Jackson (9.16 + 10.42 = 21.58), Stan Musial (8.48 + 10.46 = 18.94), Johnny Mize (7.89 + 10.92 = 18.81) and Mike Trout (9.28 + 9.41 = 18.69). Six Hall of Famers, Shoeless Joe, and the active Trout. Lajoie only fits because of the 1901 cutoff, and all but Williams and Trout among the others were 3 or 4 years older than Soto after four years as a regular, and had more fully grown into their man strength at that stage of their respective careers.

Anyway you slice it, these names represent a pretty heady group. Soto’s downside would seem to be lower-tier Hall of Famer. His upside – inner circle all-time great. Some other names who just missed being included in the groups above – Jimmie Foxx, Rogers Hornsby, Fernando Tatis Jr., Eddie Mathews, Ronald Acuna, Arky Vaughan, Tris Speaker…….no flukes need apply.

So how might Soto progress from here? Let’s look at the strengths and weaknesses of his current repertoire for some guidance. His plate discipline is elite, crazy good for a youngster. Soto’s walk rate has been over two standard deviations better than league average in every season of his career, and his strikeout rate has been over a full standard deviation better going back to 2021. That gives him quite a head start before batted ball authority is even taken into consideration. And Soto’s average exit speed has been over a full standard deviation better than league average going back to 2020, with his greatest strength in the fly ball and liner categories, the most important ones.

There are some warts, however, and most are with regard to launch angle, an area that great hitters often address over time. Soto’s liner rate has never ranked above the 39th percentile, and is extremely low thus far in 2022. His grounder rate has been in the 87th percentile or higher in every season except 2019, and his fly ball rate has been in the 23rd percentile or lower in every season except 2019. His average launch angle has been 5.8 degrees or lower in every season except 2019.

Imagine the Marlins’ version of Christian Yelich with Soto’s K/BB profile. That’s about what Soto is today. Yelich then learned how to elevate the baseball for a few years (he has regressed in the last couple of seasons, likely due to lingering effects of injury), and morphed into an MVP. A Juan Soto with a 13-15 degree average launch angle – a very likely and frightening prospect – would put up some of the greatest MLB seasons ever.

What could go wrong? He never learns to elevate the baseball with any regularity and stalls around his current level. His below average defense gets worse due to neglect, and he becomes more of an all-bat, no-glove Nelson Cruz type. His body changes materially for the worse – at 23, Soto is still at the age where he can eat whatever he wants and do relatively little preparation in the offseason and get away with it. That will change with age, though I have no reason to believe he won’t meet the challenge.

Bottom line, I see Juan Soto as a better than generational talent. Hitters like this come around once every 50 years or so, and if you place him ahead of Trout, you might have to go back to Ted Williams to find a better one. Better all-around player? The Bonds/Aaron/Mays troika probably has him beat due to his relative lack of complementary skills.

But I’m nitpicking now. Soto is a special, unique talent, and we should all be excited to have the opportunity to watch him grow and find his ultimate level of performance.