MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – JULY 11: Paul Skenes #30 of the Pittsburgh Pirates throws a pitch in the first inning \amb at American Family Field on July 11, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
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We’re now in the last month of the regular season, so it’s time to take another look at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. The AL Cy Young race was examined yesterday – today it’s the NL’s turn.
If you’re new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It’s a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball allowed by each ERA-qualifying pitcher, and calculate the damage they “should have” allowed based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That’s expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score – 100 equals league average, the lower the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each pitcher’s “Tru” ERA-, and then spread it across their innings bulk to determine their “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA).
While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc..
Padre righty Nick Pivetta and Giant lefty Robbie Ray just missed the Top Ten – the NL group is closely bunched at the bottom. Only present ERA qualifiers were considered – #1 below is a qualifier at present, but alas, will not be when the season ends. Now let’s get to the top contenders.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Giant righty Logan Webb (11.2 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average) crashes into the Top 10 in this month’s update. His 4.8 degree average launch angle allowed is the second lowest we’ll encounter today. While he does induce a ton of grounders, he allows relatively authoritative contact across all batted ball types. Another asset is his durability – he’s currently pacing the NL in innings. Surprise, surprise – Padre righty Dylan Cease (11.7 TPRAA) moves up a spot from last month despite poor traditional metrics. His 119 ERA- belies a 91 FIP-, and his 82 Tru- is even better. He’s been unlucky across all batted ball types, as his 127 Unadjusted Contact Score is far higher than his adjusted 100 mark. There’s no getting around his uneven control, however. Phillies lefty Jesus Luzardo (12.1 TPRAA) crashes the Top 10 this month. When he’s good, he’s very, very good, and he’s cut down the bad outings of late. Contact management is not his forte (101 Adjusted Contact Score), but his filthy, swing and miss stuff carries the day at times. His ceiling is immense.
Cub lefty Matthew Boyd (14.6 TPRAA) holds his #7 spot from last month. His ability to take the ball every fifth day without incident is a victory in itself considering his checkered injury history. He’s a pop up/fly ball guy – his 17.7 degree average launch angle is second to only the very next player. That would be Reds lefty Andrew Abbott (14.7 TPRAA), who didn’t have enough innings to qualify for this list a month ago. He deserves significant credit for surviving and even thriving as an extreme fly ball pitcher (18.5 degree average launch angle) in hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. His 86.9 degree average exit speed allowed is lowest of any pitcher we’ll discuss today, and he is the current leader for NL Contact Manager of the Year honors with an 81 Adjusted Contact Score.
THE TOP FIVE STARTERS
#5 – RHP Freddy Peralta (Brewers) – 17.6 TPRAA, 75 “Tru”-, 62 ERA-, 87 FIP-
Peralta moves up a spot from #6 last month. One of this group’s foremost fly ball pitchers (17.2 degree average launch angle allowed), he limits contact authority across all batted ball types. Only Abbott has a lower average exit speed allowed than Peralta’s 87.2 mph. He’s actually been a bit lucky across all batted ball types this season – his 84 Adjusted Contact Score is quite a bit higher than his unadjusted 73 mark. Even so, he’s running a close third in the NL Contact Manager of the Year race.
#4 – LHP Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies) – 17.9 TPRAA, 77 “Tru”-, 62 ERA-, 62 FIP-
With #1 below lost for the season due to injury, Sanchez has stepped up as the Phils’ new ace. His elite command and groundball-ing ways (his 3.3 degree average launch angle allowed is the lowest of this group) are coupled with sneaky good bat-missing ability. Like Webb, he does allow fairly authoritative grounder authority, which is responsible in large part for the difference between his “Tru”- and the more traditional metrics. He’s the reigning NL Contact Manager of the Year, though he is unlikely to repeat (94 Adjusted Contact Score). He holds his #4 spot from last month,
#3 – RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers) – 21.5 TPRAA, 68 “Tru”-, 67 ERA-, 72 FIP-
Very quietly, Yoshinobu has gotten the job done and then some this season. Though he’s pitched fewer innings than most pitchers on this list, his quality is bested only by the two guys below. Only Sanchez and Webb have a lower average launch angle allowed than Yamamoto’s 7.5 degrees. He’s also muted the authority of the fly balls he has allowed, posting a strong 79 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score. He’s ramped up his workload nicely this season without any signs of wear, at least so far. He holds his #3 spot from last month.
#2 – RHP Paul Skenes (Pirates) – 26.8 TPRAA, 65 “Tru”-, 48 ERA-, 61 FIP-
Last year, Skenes was qualitatively the best pitcher in the NL according to this method, but didn’t qualify for the ERA title. This year, it’s unlikely he’ll be qualitatively better than #1 below, but has already passed the 162-inning marker and is likely to win easily. Skenes does it all – misses bats, throws tons of strikes, manages contact (83 Adjusted Contact Score, 2nd to Abbott). To top it off, he’s third in the innings pitched race in this, his first full MLB season. He retains his 2nd place ranking this month, while #1 below is still (at least for a little while longer) an ERA qualifier.
#1 – RHP Zack Wheeler (Phillies) – 31.6 TPRAA, 54 “Tru”-, 63 ERA-, 72 FIP-
It’s a damn shame. He’s never won a Cy Young – but should have won multiple times, at least according to this method. Now this year, with him having the upper hand over Skenes, at least from this angle, he misses the last month-plus due to a blood clot and thoracic outlet decompression surgery. We can only hope to see him at his best again. Wheeler was much better than his mainstream numbers this season – his 67 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score – best among this group – was way better than his unadjusted 135 mark – worst among this group. He’d be the frontrunner for NL Contact Manager of the Year honors with a 79 Adjusted Contact Score, but won’t have the requisite 162 innings at the end of the season. He’s won those honors multiple times as well.
Fangraphs WAR ranks Skenes (5.5), Sanchez (5.2) and Webb (4.4) in the top three spots.