Topline
Three of the six tightest Senate races in this year’s midterm elections remained undecided as of Wednesday afternoon, with initial results pending in Arizona and Nevada, and Georgia’s race headed for a runoff, leaving no clear answer on which party will hold power for the next two years (return to this page for updates).
Control of the Senate will come down to a handful of tight races.
Key Facts
Ohio: Republican J.D. Vance has defeated Rep. Tim Ryan in an open Senate contest, with the Associated Press calling the race for the Hillbilly Elegy author and Trump favorite at 11:19 p.m.—Vance led 53.5%-46.5% with some 95% of the vote counted shortly after midnight.
Pennsylvania: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) defeated Trump-endorsed former TV personality Mehmet Oz, the AP projected, as Fetterman led Oz 49.9% to 47.7% with more than 90% of votes counted at around 2 a.m.
Arizona: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly holds a surprisingly strong lead over Republican challenger Blake Masters, up 51.4%-46.4% with 66% of the estimated vote counted.
Georgia: The contest will head to a runoff on December 6 after Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) and Republican Herschel Walker failed to secure 50% of votes.
Wisconsin: Incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson (R) won re-election, beating Democrat Mandela Barnes by two points.
Nevada: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) trails Republican Adam Laxalt 47.2% to 49.9% with 77% of ballots counted, in what polls suggest will be a razor-tight contest where the economy is far and away the top issue.
Surprising Fact
Both parties aimed to flip safer seats, but those efforts appeared to largely fall flat. Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D), New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) and Washington Sen. Patty Murray (D) staved off Republican challengers, while Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) defeated their Democratic opponents, and Rep. Ted Budd (R) won an open Senate seat in North Carolina, the AP projected Tuesday night. Utah Sen. Mike Lee (R) also won reelection, beating independent Evan McMullin.
Tangent
Most of Tuesday’s Senate races aren’t expected to be close. Democrats held onto seats in California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Oregon and Vermont, according to projections from the AP. Meanwhile, Republicans held on in Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, South Carolina and two races in Oklahoma.
Key Background
Republicans have 21 seats up for grabs in Tuesday’s election, but 15 are in districts solidly controlled by the GOP, while only one—Toomey’s seat—is rated a toss-up, according to the Cook Political Report. Of the 14 Democrat-held seats in contention, eight are in solid blue districts, and three are rated toss-ups. Republicans have gained seats in three of the past four midterms: two in 2018 under former President Donald Trump, and nine in 2014 and six in 2010 under former President Barack Obama. Democrats secured six additional seats under former President George W. Bush in 2006.
Further Reading
Fetterman Attacks Oz Over Abortion Remarks In Post-Debate Ad (Forbes)
Pennsylvania Senate Race: Near-Tie As Republicans Rally Around Oz, Narrowing Fetterman’s Lead (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2022/11/09/elections-results-2022-pending-results-in-two-senate-races-could-decide-majority-control/