Opportunity to target 16.40 in six to nine months – SocGen

The Mexican Peso (MXN) is down about 1.3% vs. the US Dollar (USD) – spot basis and flat year-to-date on total basis – so far in 2024. Strategists at Société Générale analyze MXN outlook.

Banxico to launch easing cycle in March

Our EM strategists remain optimistic on the Peso and continue to favour buying MXN dips.

We expect the central bank to implement gradual easing, starting with a 25 bps cut in March and then a cumulative -250 bps to 8.45% by end-2024 against implied pricing of around 9.50%.

We see an opportunity target 16.40 in six to nine months thanks to structural domestic tailwinds of nearshoring and high remittances, and high carry-to-vol. The caveat is US tariffs and an overshoot of US bond yields.