OPEC+ to boost production by 137,000 barrels amid price surge

OPEC+ is expected to approve another production increase of 137,000 barrels per day at its meeting next Sunday, according to a report from Reuters on Sunday. This follows months of output hikes since April, all aimed at regaining lost market share and taking advantage of higher oil prices.

The bloc, which controls around half of the world’s oil supply, includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and a few other allies.

Since reversing its output cut strategy earlier this year, OPEC+ has already raised quotas by over 2.5 million barrels per day, roughly 2.4% of global demand. The reversal came under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who wanted lower oil prices.

OPEC+ discusses final cut rollbacks as prices spike

A final decision on the November increase will be made at an online meeting on October 5, involving eight OPEC+ producers. That increase is expected to match October’s 137,000 barrels per day bump, as confirmed by the same sources. The group did not respond to media requests, and Saudi Arabia’s oil ministry also remained silent.

Since the group started rolling back cuts in April, oil prices have hovered mostly between $60 and $70 per barrel. But last Friday, prices surged to their highest since August 1, crossing the $70 mark. The spike followed Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy sites, which hit refining operations and interrupted oil shipments — Russia being one of the largest oil exporters globally.

At the height of its coordinated production cuts, OPEC+ had pulled 5.85 million barrels per day off the market. That reduction was broken into three parts: 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts, another 1.65 million bpd sliced by eight members, and a broader 2 million bpd reduction agreed to by the full group. Those cuts were rolled out to prop up prices when demand fell.

Now, that rollback is in full swing. The eight countries involved started removing the 1.65 million bpd layer this month with the current 137,000 bpd increase. They had already agreed to fully unwind the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts by the end of September. The third and final layer of 2 million bpd is still in place and is expected to remain until end-2026.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates was given a separate approval to raise its own production by 300,000 barrels per day between April and September, as part of a side agreement within the broader OPEC+ framework.

Even with all the planned hikes, many members aren’t hitting their quotas. Industry analysts say most are already pumping as much as they possibly can. That’s why increases on paper don’t always show up in real barrels.

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