One Shale Executive Correctly Called OPEC+’s Surprise Output Cut

(Bloomberg) — OPEC+’s decision to cut production this past Sunday shocked traders around the world and heightened worries of a rebound in inflation, but one Texas shale executive forecast the move — almost exactly — back in January.

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At a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. conference in Miami on Jan. 5, Pioneer Natural Resources Co. Chief Executive Officer Scott Sheffield was asked about his outlook for the cartel by sell-side analyst Neil Mehta.

“OPEC ministers are frustrated over the recent price fall, it’s understood,” Sheffield said, according to a transcript of the event.

“I think it’s going to change,” he said. “If it stays too low, it wouldn’t surprise me if they have another cut. But they have to — they got to wait until Feb. 5 to watch the product ban on Russia. They got to see what happens with the Covid policy being 100% reversed in China. And then we’ll see what happens in the next 90 days.”

Almost three months later, OPEC announced it was slashing output by more than 1 million barrels a day, sending Brent futures soaring by almost 8% at one point Monday before settling just below $85 a barrel.

US President Joe Biden will be hoping that Sheffield’s other forecast doesn’t come true. At last month’s CERAWeek conference in Houston, he said oil prices would reach $100 a barrel by the fourth quarter.