Once Unimaginable, Oil Flirts With Being Top U.S. Export

Oil is flirting with becoming the nation’s most valuable export, just five years after accounting for more than 1% of all U.S. exports for the very first time. If this were to happen it would certainly be the first time in decades, if not ever.

While it won’t happen this year, if ever, it today ranks second among some 1,200 export categories, second only to gasoline and other refined petroleum products. It has now passed the civilian aircraft category, the perennial No. 1 for many years.

Oil’s percentage of total U.S. exports has increased fivefold in just five years, to 5.3%, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau data available.

With top-ranked refined petroleum products at 6.4%, the value of oil exports is little more than a percentage point from the top spot.

This is the fourth in a series of columns about the nation’s exports. It follows similar series I did for the countries that are the nation’s top 10 trade partners and one for the airports, seaports and border crossings that are the nation’s top 10 “ports.”

The first article in this series focused on an overview of the top 10 exports. The second looked at the top 10 countries that are markets for U.S. exports and how they differ from our overall trade partners, which would include imports. The third was, of course, about refined petroleum, the top export.

The fifth through 12th articles will look at No. 3 natural gas, No. 4 commercial jets, No. 5 passenger vehicles, No. 6 computer chips, No. 7 plasma and vaccines, No. 8 motor vehicle parts, No. 9 medicine in pill form and No. 10 medical instruments.

As we should all know by now, oil and gasoline markets are fluid, whether it’s watching the price of a barrel go from being a head-scratching ($37) — as in, less than zero — little more than two years ago to above $100 recently or seeing how deep in our wallets we have to go to fill our gas tanks.

You can see just how fluid by looking at the ranking of the top five exports markets over the last three years, including the partial 2022, and the values.

The top five markets for U.S. oil this year are:

1. Canada, $4.44 billion
2. The United Kingdom, $4.44 billion
3. South Korea, $2.5 billion
4. India, $4.21 billion
5. Singapore, $4.89 billion

Here were the top five markets for U.S. oil exports in 2021:

1. India, $9.66 billion
2. South Korea, $8.56 billion
3. Canada, $7.72 billion
4. Netherlands, $6.82 billion
5. China, $6.05 billion

And here are the top five for 2020:

1. China, $6.81 billion
2. Canada, $6.53 billion
3. The Netherlands, $6.02 billion
4. South Korea, $4.52 billion
5. India, $$4.40 billion

Looking at those values, and having filled your gas tank over the last six months, you will not be surprised to learn than oil exports are running at a record pace, when viewed by value.

Through May, oil exports were valued at $43.83 billion. That is five times the value of those exports in 2017, more than 10 times the same five months of 2016. It’s even well above the previous record pace set in 2019, of $25.19 billion.

Better than 85% of those exports this year have been handled as just three Texas seaports — Corpus Christi, Houston and Beaumont, with Corpus Christi at just over 50%.