Economists at CIBC Capital Markets analyze the EUR/USD outlook.
Moderating activity to keep ECB on hold
Weakening activity in the Eurozone implies that the European Central Bank is already at its terminal rate. That should work to keep the EUR on the defensive in the near-term.
The paring in rate pricing, unwind in EUR holdings and widening in UST Bund spreads favours near-term EUR headwinds.
EUR/USD – Q4 2023: 1.05 | Q1 2024: 1.06
See: ECB raises interest rates again, signals end of tightening cycle
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-on-the-defensive-in-the-near-term-cibc-202309141421