Oil Producers For Net Zero?

This year, the COP28 is due to be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from November 30^th to December 12^th. The country is one of the world’s top producers of oil and gas, and has flourished economically thanks to them. Nonetheless, the conference will bring world leaders together to discuss climate change and a “phase-down” of fossil fuels.

President-designate Sultan al-Jaber is also the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, the 12-largest group by petroleum production. In an interview with the Financial Times, al-Jaber said that he is in talks with fossil fuel producers for a phase down, and that “they need to start investing in the decarbonisation of the energy system”.

The “Global Decarbonization Alliance”, of which al-Jaber speaks of, has brought together more than 20 top polluters, which together produce about a quarter of all oil and gas. Their goal is to reach net zero by 2050 from direct emissions and emissions derived from the energy the companies purchase.

That the 28^th UN climate summit is led by the CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has not been uncontroversial. 133 members of US Congress and the European parliament wrote a letter urging for al-Jaber to be replaced, arguing “that different leadership is necessary to help ensure that COP28 is a serious and productive climate summit”.

The letter also brought up that fossil fuel producers have not made a plan to bring emissions to net zero, but instead have focused on influencing UN and other conferences. They highlighted that in the preceding COP27, “636 lobbyists from the oil and gas industries registered to attend”.

The Russian delegation has been pushing back against US and EU calls for a phase down. Russia is the second largest producer of natural gas and the third for oil, as well as being a major player in coal markets. That is, despite curbs imposed by the G7 and other countries on energy exports, after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

During COP27, which took place in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, more than 80 countries agreed on a plan to gradually stop using fossil fuels, which by some estimates account for three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions. This would turn them into the single largest driver behind climate change, with agriculture and other sectors far behind.

Russian pushback is also preventing the next summit, the COP29, from taking place in EU territory. Armenia and Azerbaijan had become the frontrunners, until the latest episode of fighting upended plans. Next year’s event could take place in either the UAE as it would retain the presidency. Alternatively, the conference could default to the headquarters of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Germany.

North America and Europe are making some of the most ambitious plans. While in recent years they account for fewer emissions, they bear the largest responsibility in both historical and per capita emissions. The US itself remains the world’s top producer of oil and gas, in large part thanks to the “shale revolution” since 2010.

The EU is planning to push for a “phase-out of unabated fossil fuels”, which are those burned without emissions captured, “well before 2050”. However, it is proving difficult with other political concerns getting in the way. Conflict with Russia suppressed the inflow to Central Europe of natural gas as a “transition fuel”, which is less polluting than oil and coal; and Germany, the economic powerhouse, has ditched nuclear for good.